US: US House Passes Budget Resolution, Tsy Yields Firm

Feb-26 02:20

The US House, controlled by the Republicans, narrowly passed a budget blueprint, which could help Trump's tax cut and other spending related agenda. Other parts of government spending are expected to be cut, while the debt ceiling would also be raised. 

BBG noted: "The House budget would pave the way for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts — about enough to pay for extending the expiring cuts but not enough to also cover Trump’s campaign promises for additional tax relief. The measure would add to the budget deficit despite calling for $2 trillion in overall spending cuts over ten years. The blueprint would raise the US debt limit by $4 trillion, avoiding a potential payment default this summer." 

They added: "The vote doesn’t guarantee an extension of the expiring 2017 Trump tax cuts. The Senate plans to make changes to the House blueprint before passing it and that could raise new objections among House Republicans." 

  • There is still some way for this to all become law, but it is seen as a positive step for Trump's agenda. US yields have ticked up from earlier lows, last around +2bps (versus end Tuesday levels) across some of the key benchmarks. The 10yr is back near 4.32%, after earlier being at 4.28%. the USD has recovered some ground as well, last up a touch, to 1285.35 for the BBDXY, USD/JPY has risen back towards 149.25/30.

Historical bullets

CHINA PRESS: China’s Electricity Demand Growth Demonstrates Industrial Upgrading

Jan-27 01:47

China’s eight major industries, which include ferrous, non-ferrous and construction sectors, have seen electricity demand grow by 43.5% since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, demonstrating the nation’s progress in industrial upgrading, according to Jiang Debin, deputy director at the China Electricity Council. The country’s electricity consumption is expected to increase about 6% this year, a recent report from the China Electricity Council showed. Electricity’s share of total energy demand will reach about 34% in 2030, up from 29% last year, the report noted. (Source: Yicai)

CHINA PRESS: Shenzhen GDP Up 5.8% In 2024, Strong Manufacturing

Jan-27 01:46

Shenzhen’s GDP increased 5.8% y/y in 2024, with primary, secondary and tertiary industries up 1.5%, 8.3% and 4.3% y/y, according to data from the city's Bureau of Statistics. The added value of computer, communication and other electronic equipment sectors grew 11.0% y/y, with 3D printing equipment, industrial robots up 35.8%, 31.8% y/y. Total retail sales of consumer goods rose 1.1% y/y. (Source: Yicai)

CHINA PRESS: Local Government Land Revenue Decline To Narrow In 2025

Jan-27 01:45

Declining local government land-sale revenue is expected to narrow to single digits in 2025, given the ongoing structural adjustment in the property sector, according to Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities. Ministry of Finance data showed land-sale revenue fell 16% last year. Luo said authorities had increased optimism given the acceleration of high-quality plots and revitalising land, however, corporate confidence in acquiring land remained low given high debt risks. (Source: 21st Century Business Herald)