FOREX: USD Index Steady as Fed Keeps Guidance Unchanged

• While the NYSE Group markets will close in observance of the National Day of Mourning for President Carter (New York Stock Exchange, NYSE American Equities, NYSE American Options, NYSE Arca Equities, NYSE Arca Options, NYSE Chicago and NYSE National), the CME Group has opted for early close, link HERE
• FI open outcry will close at 1300ET, GLOBEX shortly after at 1315ET.
• More to follow, but economic data expected that day is likely to proceed as normal (weekly jobless claims at 0930ET, Wholesale trade & inventories at 1000ET).
• Treasury auctions scheduled for January 9 remain uncertain (4- & 8W bills at 1130ET, 30Y bond re-open at 1300ET).

• RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
• RES 3: 0.6444 50-day EMA               
• RES 2: 0.6384 High Dec 13   
• RES 1: 0.6274/6323 Low Dec 20 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6216 @ 16:12 GMT Dec 30
• SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19 
• SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

AUDUSD bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6323, the 20-day EMA. 

• Treasuries look to finish near the top end of the range Monday after marking session highs following much weaker than expected Chicago PMI data. Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI slipped 3.3 points to 36.9 in December. This is the third consecutive monthly decline, with the index at its lowest since May 2024, and below the 2024 average.
• Higher than expected pending new home sales (2.2% vs. 0.8% est) and a jump in Dallas Fed mfg index data (3.4 vs. -3.0 est) tempered Tsy support by midmorning with the Mar'25 10Y contract trading around 108-30 (+16) through the second half, 10Y yield -.0806 at 4.5447% after the bell.
• Despite the pull-back, Projected rate cuts into early 2025 gained momentum vs. this morning, levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -14.6bp (-13.6bp), May'25 -20.6bp (-19.5bp), Jun'25 -30.3bp (-28.8bp).
• Tuesday data (prior, est) includes FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.7%, 0.4%) and S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (0.18%, 0.20%) at 0900ET, Dallas Fed Services Activity (9.8, --) at 1030ET.
• Reminder for Tuesday's session: Rate futures have full session (1600ET close) while cash Tsys close at 1400ET. Still no decision from the CME Group regarding the "day of mourning" in honor of Pres Carter on January 9, while stocks and Federal Gov is closed.