FOREX: USD Index Ticks Up, Yen Softens On Better Risk Appetite
Mar-12 00:36
The USD is slightly higher in the first part of Wednesday trade. The USD BBDXY index back close to 1267 in latest dealings, up around 0.10% from end NY levels on Tuesday. We are still close to recent lows (1264.63) and the simple 200-day MA for this index. We are seeing modest yen underperformance so far today as risk appetite stabilizes, but aggregate moves are modest overall.
- US equity futures are in the green with modest tech outperformance. Eminis up around +0.30%, Nasdaq futures up 0.40%, slightly off best levels for the session. EU stock futures are also higher, re-opening 0.85% firmer. Hopes for a Ukraine/Russia ceasefire is helping sentiment, but tariff risks still persist. The RSI (14) on Eminis sits in oversold territory as well, which may also be inducing some short covering.
- US yields are off a little over 1bps for the middle part of the curve, after strong yield gain on Tuesday. Earlier headlines crossed that the US House had passed a Stopgap funding bill to avert a shutdown.
- USD/JPY was last back above 148.00, off around 0.20% in yen terms for the session so far. BoJ Governor Ueda is appearing before parliament at the moment, and noting that yields are set by the market and that the rise reflects views on the economy and inflation. He stated there is no big gap between the market and BOJ view (per BBG). Such a backdrop may aid JGB yields and therefore yen, although broader risk trends in the equity space may matter more in the near term.
- Earlier we had Japan PPI data close to expectations.
- AUD/USD and NZD/USD are a touch weaker. the A$ last under 0.6300, while NZD/USD was near 0.5710. EUR/USD is down slightly to 1.0910/15.
- The data calendar is light for the remainder of the Asia Pac session.
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GLOBAL MACRO: Canada Again Vulnerable To Latest US Tariffs
Feb-10 00:35
US President Trump said that 25% tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminium imports would be announced today. Again Canada is in the firing line as its steel and aluminium make up the largest shares by far of US imports of these products. However, while the US is the world’s second largest steel importer, according to Tradeimex, it is not a major US import but domestically fabricated metals are the 7th largest sector by value added
- Steel imports accounted for only 1.1% of total 2023 imports and aluminium was only 0.9%. Thus these tariffs are unlikely to be a major inflationary issue for the US but will still significantly impact certain sectors who use them as inputs to production, such as autos.
- According to Tradeimex, electronics (14.6% of the total), nuclear reactors & machinery (14.5%), vehicles (12.0%), fuel & oil (8.4%) and pharmaceuticals (5.6%) were the largest categories imported into the US in 2023. Steel and aluminium didn’t feature in the top 10 but it is not surprising that Trump has been vocal on autos.
- The main impact is likely to be felt by the key exporters with Canada and Mexico in the top three for both steel and aluminium. In 2023, Canada accounted for 25% of US steel imports and 39% of aluminium, while Mexico was 11% and 7% respectively.
- 10% of aluminium imports came from China and last week the US already announced a 10% universal tariff on all Chinese imports, according to TrendEconomy. It doesn’t feature in the top source of steel imports but they may be coming through a third country, such as Mexico.
- Other APAC countries impacted include Korea, Japan and Taiwan for steel and India, Korea and Australia for aluminium. For Australia, overall aluminium exports accounted for only 4% of total exports and so US tariffs will have a minimal impact.
US steel imports by source % total 2023
Source: MNI - Market News/Tradeimex
US aluminium & articles imports by source % total 2023
Source: MNI - Market News/TrendEconomy
FOREX: USD Off Highs, Yen Unwinds Outperformance As US Equity Futures Rebound
Feb-10 00:26
Early yen outperformance has unwound as the morning Asia Pac FX session unfolds. The USD BBDXY index is holding around 0.20% higher at this stage, last near 1302.75, but the dollar is away from best levels against most currencies (except JPY).
- Headlines from US President Trump that tariffs of 25% on all steel and aluminium imports, which would be announced on Monday, (albeit with no mention of when they would be enacted) saw the USD rally in early dealings.
- Follow through has been modest though, AUD/USD got to lows of 0.6231, but now sits higher at 0.6260/65, off around 0.20% for the session. NZD/USD is off a little as well, last near 0.5650.
- USD/CAD is up around 0.25%, last near 1.4325/30 (earlier highs in this pair were 1.4380). Canada has exposure to the US via steel and aluminium exports.
- EUR/USD got to lows of 1.0280, but is now back near 1.0315/20.
- USD/JPY got to 151.16 earlier, although this was above Friday intra-session session lows of 150.93. We were last 151.70/75 (session highs today are at 151.89).
- US equity futures opened weaker, but are now back in positive territory, likely weighing on yen outperformance. US yields are sitting down modestly in early dealings, but the 10yr at 4.48% is within recent ranges.
- The data calendar is reasonably light for the remainder of today's Asia Pac session.
CHINA: China’s PPI and CPI Telling Two Different Stories.
Feb-10 00:18
- In out data preview last week we forecast two different stories coming from the PPI and CPI data releases over the weekend, and that certainly was the case.
- Mired in deflation, PPI’s print was weaker than consensus at -2.3% (consensus -2.2%; prior -2.3%) and was the 28th month in succession of decline speaks to the absence of pricing power that corporates have.
- CPI however tells a different story rising +0.5% YoY (consensus +0.4 ; prior +0.1%)the first rise since August last year.
- The largest contributor to the rise was food prices up +0.4% and services +1.1%.
- Core rose 0.6% YoY from 0.4% in December.
- The MoM figures sees CPI rising +0.7%.
- Authorities will be heartened by the CPI numbers, given the focus on improving consumption in the economy whilst being conscious of the distorting effect of the Lunar New Year holidays would have had on this month’s release.
