CHILE: USDCLP Extends Lower, BCCh Traders Survey Tomorrow
Feb-13 14:31
- Further progress has been seen for the Chilean peso on Thursday, as yesterday’s post BCCh minutes bid remains prominent. As such, USDCLP sits 0.3% lower on the session, and the pair remains in a bear-mode condition.
- The clear break of the 50-day EMA recently highlighted the potential for a deeper retracement, which has played out well across early February. Note too that the pair also gained momentum to the downside on a break of 966.86, the Dec 6 low.
- This reinforces current bearish conditions and opens 940.35, the 61.8% retracement of the upleg between Sep 27 ‘24 - Jan 3.
- We noted yesterday that despite the hawkish lean from the BCCh, Santander commented on the most recent developments for two-year inflation expectations as diminishing the likelihood of the central bank needing to hike rates. The BCCh traders survey results are due for publication tomorrow.
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EQUITIES: US Cash calls
Jan-14 14:28
SPX: 5,870.7 (+0.6%); DJIA: 42,491 (+0.5%/+194pts); NDX: 20,941.0 (+0.8%).
SONIA: Call Condor
Jan-14 14:27
0NM5 96.00/96.20/96.30/96.40c condor, bought for 4.25 in 10k.
UK DATA: MNI UK CPI Preview - December 2024
Jan-14 14:21
- UK markets have been volatile but this week’s data is still very much in focus, with CPI data headlining on Wednesday.
- The median from the previews that we have read look for headline CPI to come in at 2.60%Y/Y (mean 2.61%Y/Y, Bloomberg consensus is 2.6%Y/Y). This is 14 hundredths above the BOE’s 2.46%Y/Y forecast.
- In terms of services CPI, the median of the previews we have read is 4.75%Y/Y (mean 4.79%Y/Y; Bloomberg median 4.8%Y/Y).
- The main drivers in the slowdown in headline CPI in December versus November are air fares, core goods and tobacco, with petrol prices expected to offset these moves to some extent. We look at these factors in more detail.
- The factor with the potential to have the largest impact on CPI is the choice of price collection date. This is widely expected to be Tuesday 10 December (quite early in the month and quite far away from Christmas). However, there is a chance that the ONS selects Tuesday 17 December. We discuss the impact of the collection date on the release.
- We also summarise 14 sellside analyst views.
