EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C February 3, 2025

Germany, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Belgium, Finland, the ESM, the EU and Italy are due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E37.9bln in first round operations, up from E0.5bln last week.

• This morning, Germany will sell E2bln of the 6-month Jul 16, 2025 bubill.
• Also this morning, the Netherlands will issue E1.0-2.0bln of the 3-month Mar 28, 2025 DTC and E1.0-2.0bln of the new 6-month Jun 27, 2025 DTC.
• This afternoon, France will come to the market to sell up to E7.5bln of the 9/14/25/51-week BTFs: E0.2-0.6bln of the new 9-week Apr 16, 2025 BTF, E3.1-3.5bln of the new 14-week Apr 16, 2025 BTF, E1.2-1.6bln of the 25-week Jul 2, 2025 BTF and E1.4-1.8bln of the new 51-week Dec 31, 2025 BTF.
• Tomorrow morning, Spain will issue a combined E5.5-6.5bln of the 6-month Jul 4, 2025 letras and the new 12-month Jan 9, 2026 letras.
• Also tomorrow morning, Belgium will look to sell E3.8-4.2bln of the 4/6/11-month TCs:  an indicative E1.0bln each of the 4-month May 8, 2025 TC and the new 6-month Jul 10, 2025 TC, and an indicative E2.0bln of the new 11-month Dec 11, 2025 TC.
• Thirdly tomorrow, Finland will sell up to a combined E2bln of the 7-month Aug 13, 2025 RFTB and the 10-month Nov 13, 2025 RFTB.
• Next tomorrow, the ESM will issue up to E1.1bln of the new 3-month Apr 3, 2025 bills.
• Finally tomorrow, the EU will sell up to E1.5bln of the 3-month Apr 4, 2025 EU-bill, E1.5bln of the new 6-month Jul 4, 2025 EU-bill and E1.5bln of the new 12-month Jan 9, 2026 EU-bill.
• On Friday, Italy will issue a new 12-month BOT alongside potentially another existing BOT. Details will be announced on tomorrow.

For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.

• RES 4: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
• RES 3: 0.8376 High Nov 19 and a bull trigger 
• RES 2: 0.8356 High Nov 27
• RES 1: 0.8313/29 50-day EMA / High Dec 27 
• PRICE: 0.8287 @ 06:38 GMT Jan 6
• SUP 1: 0.8263/23 Low Dec 31 / 19
• SUP 2: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support 
• SUP 3: 0.8200 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.8188 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 - 19 price swing

EURGBP is unchanged and continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Resistance at 0.8313, the 50-day EMA, has recently been pierced. A clear breach of the average would undermine the bear theme and highlight a stronger reversal. A resumption of the primary downtrend would pave the way for a move towards major support at 0.8203, the Mar 7 ‘22 low and the lowest point of a multi-year range.

The People's Bank of China has sent a clearer and stronger signal on stabilising the yuan in its Q4 monetary policy meeting, emphasising “strengthening market management” whilst deleting “enhancing exchange rate flexibility” which appeared in its Q3 meeting, PBOC-run newspaper Financial News reported. The PBOC showed determination to maintain yuan stability by restoring its previous “three resolutes” statement, meaning to resolutely deal with market order-disrupting behaviors, prevent the formation of unilateral expectations and their self-realisation, as well as guard against the risk of exchange rate overshooting, the newspaper said.