EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C March 24, 2025

• US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.215%(ALLOT 60.66%)
• US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 29.82% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 11.86% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 58.32% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.33

Since the January meeting, FOMC participants have become more hawkish – or at least, more patient. We go through all relevant FOMC member commentary since the last meeting in our Minutes preview (PDF here).

• That’s particularly the case since the Feb 7 release of January’s employment report which among other things showed an unexpected dip in the unemployment rate to 4.0% from 4.1%.
• And while multiple doves expressed optimism that January’s strong CPI print doesn’t portend a deviation from the path to 2% or preclude rate cuts this year, they have likewise acknowledged that a near-term easing looks out of the question and that any reductions will require more evidence of disinflationary progress.
• Continued uncertainty over potential tariff/fiscal/immigration shifts under the Trump administration have been flagged by multiple participants as grounds to remain patient until the impact can be assessed.
• We have shifted the dots in our Hawk-Dove Spectrum toward the hawkish end pretty much across the board – with sentiment toward a prolonged hold seemingly building.

• EUR/USD: Feb21 $1.0400(E2.0bln), $1.0500-18(E1.1bln); Feb24 $1.0450(E1.1bln), $1.0460-70(E4.1bln), $1.0465-70($2.4bln); Feb25 $1.0390-00(E1.2bln)
• USD/CAD: Feb21 C$1.4500($1.2bln), C$1.4600($1.7bln)