AMERICAS OIL: WTI crude is modestly weaker but holding onto Wednesday’s 2% gain
Mar-13 11:23
WTI crude is modestly weaker but holding onto Wednesday’s 2% gains as firm near term demand and larger than expected US oil product stock draws are weighed against global economic growth concerns.
- OPEC MOMR kept its world oil demand growth forecast stable at 1.45m b/d for 2025 but showed that its February output exceeded targets due to Kazakhstan significantly exceeding its quota. The IEA publishes its monthly oil report later today.
- Kazakhstan has agreed with international oil companies to cut output in the near future however loading programs for Caspian CPC Blend are expected to remain near record highs next month.
- Oil markets have been concerned about the impact of increased protectionism on global growth with threats of further tariffs on EU goods. Europe and Canada said they would retaliate for the US’s import duties on steel and aluminium.
- EIA data showed a bigger than expected draw of 5.7mbbl in US gasoline stocks and higher weekly implied demand. US crude inventories rose roughly in line with expectation by 1.45mbbl with an increase in refinery runs and drop in exports back to 3.29mbpd.
- Delek’s 73,000 b/d Big Spring, Texas, refinery reported equipment malfunction resulting in exceeding emissions quantity limits on Mar 12.
- IEA cut its 2025 oil demand outlook as trade war threatens the economy. The March report sees global demand at 103.9m b/d in 2025 and global supply at 104.5m b/d.
- Iran will enter direct talks with the US on equal terms only while Iran discusses a “new idea” with the IAEA to resolve nuclear concerns.
- Gasoline cracks gained some ground yesterday with support from the EIA data while diesel cracks firmed off of supportive implied demand.
- WTI APR 25 down 0.3% at 67.47/bbl
- US gasoline crack up 0.3$/bbl at 22.91$/bbl
- US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 25.11$/bbl
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EUR: Seeing wider demand in te past few minutes
Feb-11 11:20
- The EUR is seeing a wider bid here, at its best level for the day against the CHF, JPY, AUD, NOK, CAD, and the EUR is on the foot in early trade, with the CAD leading losses, down 0.31%.
- It is still worth noting that Yesterday's low at 1.47237 in EURCAD was the lowest level in nearly a Month, since 13th January, so today's gains is barely an unwound of Yesterday's range.
- The high in EURCAD is at 1.48155.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Fed Chairman Powell Senate Banking Testimony
Feb-11 11:19
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 11-Feb 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism reported 102.8 vs. 105.1 prior
- 11-Feb 0850 Cleveland Fed Hammack economic outlook (text, Q&A)
- 11-Feb 1000 Fed Chair Powell Senate Banking testimony (text, Q&A)
- 11-Feb 1130 US Tsy $85B 42D CMB bill auction
- 11-Feb 1300 US Tsy $58B 3Y Note auction (91282CMN8)
- 11-Feb 1530 NY Fed Williams keynote remarks/moderated Q&A
- 11-Feb 1530 Fed Gov Bowman on bank regulation (text, no Q&A)
NORWAY: Vacancy Rate Eases In Q4, Approaching 2010-19 Beveridge Curves
Feb-11 11:17
The Norwegian seasonally adjusted vacancy rate eased to 2.8% in Q4, down from 3.1% in Q3 for the lowest since March 2021. This is down from a post-covid high of 4.0%, with labour demand easing amid subdued mainland activity (most recently highlighted by this morning’s Q4 GDP report).
- Labour market rebalancing has been more pronounced in vacancy than unemployment statistics. While the NAV unemployment claims rate (which Norges Bank focuses on) has drifted away from 2022 lows, it remains below 2010-2019 levels.
- Norway now appears to be approaching points on 2010-2019 Beveridge curves, but this does immediately signal scope for more pronounced increases in unemployment rates ahead (the charts below plot the unemployment claims rate as well as the LFS unemployment rate).
- This contrasts to the Eurozone, where unemployment rates remain at historically low levels despite easing vacancy rates.
