AMERICAS OIL: WTI Crude Oil is mixed amidst signs of easing Israel/Hamas tension
Feb-13 19:38
{US}{7i} February 13 - Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: WTI Crude Oil is mixed amidst signs of easing Israel/Hamas tensions and ‘imminent’ Ukraine peace talks, though having recovered some losses as the dollar weakened following delays to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.
- President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs will not go into effect today and are time-delayed by ~6 weeks, CNBC reports. Trump clarified later in the day that he was directing the US Trade Representative and Commerce Secretary to propose new levies on a country-by-country basis in a process that could take weeks or months. Howard Lutnick said studies will be complete by April 1 and Trump could start the reciprocal plan by April 2.
- Crude fell this morning after headlines suggested that tensions around the Gaza ceasefire deal had eased, with Hamas reaffirming its commitment to the hostage release deal.
- President Trump is likely to meet Russian President Putin in person in Saudi Arabia some time. Also, it’s not “realistic” for Ukraine to join NATO. Trump has said negotiations will begin imminently but there is a long way to go before there is a truce.
- 94 of the 154 active tankers sanctioned by the US on Jan. 10 are now idle, Bloomberg reports.
- Global oil demand growth is projected to average 1.1 mb/d in 2025, up from 870 kb/d in 2024, according to the IEA Monthly Oil Report.
- India only wants to buy Russian oil only if it is supplied by companies and ships that have not been sanctioned by the U.S. the country's oil secretary said to Reuters at India Energy Week.
- PBF Energy will not begin assessing damage to its 156k b/d Martinez, CA, refinery for a week or more due to fire damage according to CEO Matt Lucey.
- The NOAA 6–14-day outlook is supportive for heating demand with below-normal conditions forecast across the eastern two-thirds of the country while milder conditions persist in the West. Elevated heating demand is likely in much of PADDs 1-3 with decreased demand in most of PADDs 4-5.
- US cracks rose with diesel cracks recovering lost ground amid a colder forecast that supported demand for heating oil. Gasoline cracks were higher following an unexpected decline in stocks last week.
- WTI Mar futures were down 0.1% at $71.31
- WTI Apr futures were down 0.1% at $71.15
- RBOB Mar futures were up 1.1% at $2.11
- ULSD Mar futures were down 0.0% at $2.45
- US gasoline crack up 1.3$/bbl at 17.38$/bbl
- US ULSD crack up 0.2$/bbl at 31.60$/bbl
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COMMODITIES: Crude Declines, Gold Holding On To Bulk Of Recent Gains
Jan-14 19:33
- WTI crude prices are easing lower today as prices readjust following a rally up to a high of $79.27/bbl yesterday. Recent gains have been driven by fresh US sanctions on Russia.
- WTI Feb 25 is down by 1.4% at $77.7/bbl.
- The Wall Street Journal reports that President-elect Donald Trump is preparing a set of energy-related executive orders, to sign upon his inauguration on Jan 20, that would unwind Biden administration rules on offshore/onshore drilling on federal lands, tailpipe emissions, and LNG exports approval.
- Meanwhile, a potential drop in supply from sanctions against Russia and Iran are challenging the possibility of a market surplus this year, as previously forecast by some analysts.
- The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish, with sights on $79.59, the Jul 5 ‘24 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose the 20-day EMA, at $73.16.
- Spot gold has risen by 0.4% to $2,673/oz today.
- UBS analysts expect gold to hit a fresh record high this year amid trade and geopolitical uncertainties, forecasting the yellow metal to reach $2,850 by year-end.
- While recent gains in gold appear corrective for now, the yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of last week’s gains and scope is seen for a continuation higher near-term.
- A stronger recovery would open $2,726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important resistance.
PIPELINE: Late Corporate Issuance Roundup: $19.75B to Price Tuesday
Jan-14 19:28
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/14 $3.5B *British Colombia 3Y SOFR+45
- 01/14 $3B *KFW +5Y +40
- 01/14 $2.5B #BNG Bank 5Y SOFR+47
- 01/14 $2.5B *CADES 5Y SOFR+68, upsized from $2B
- 01/14 $2B #Adobe $800M 3Y +30, $700M 5Y +40, $500M 10Y +55
- 01/14 $2B *CAF 5Y SOFR+82
- 01/14 $2B *IFC 3Y SOFR+29
- 01/14 $1.25B #BFCM $900M 5Y +95, $350M 5Y SOFR+123
- 01/14 $500M Blackstone Private Cr Fund 7Y +170
- 01/14 $500M #Hyundai 3Y +80
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Second Half Recovery, Banks Up Ahead Earnings
Jan-14 19:08
- Stocks have recovered from midday lows and are making moderate gains in late trade - still off this morning's post-data knee-jerk highs as accounts square risk and migrate to the sidelines ahead of Wednesday's key CPI inflation data.
- Currently, the DJIA trades up 206.18 points (0.49%) at 42504.32, S&P E-Minis up 20 points (0.34%) at 5894, Nasdaq up 46.2 points (0.2%) at 19133.11.
- Utilities continue to outperform while Financial sector shares have gained momentum in the second half. Independent power and electricity providers rebounded after Monday's selling: Vistra +4.91%, Constellation Energy +3.09%, NRG Energy +2.42%.
- Banks and financial services shares led gainers in the second half - taking some risk with banks kicking off the latest earnings cycle tomorrow: Blackrock, Bank of NY Melon, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, followed by M&T Bank, US Bancorp, Morgan Stanley and PNC on Thursday.
- Leading gainers included Citizens Financial +3.74%, Huntington Bancshares +2.81, Fifth Third +2.8% and Discover Financial Services +2.64%.
- On the flipside, Health Care and Communication Services continued to underperform in late trade. Pharmaceuticals weighed on the Health Care sector: Eli Lilly -6.5% after phase 1 trials of it's weight loss drug were terminated, Charles River Labs -5.35%, Biogen -3.64% and Moderna -2.87%.
- Interactive media and entertainment shares weighed on the Communication Services sector: Meta -1.83% amid reports of staff reductions of lowest 5% performers, Netflix -0.62%, Alphabet -0.32%.
