UKRAINE: Zelenskyy To Visit White House After Minerals Deal Agreed

• The assumption that US firms will remain market-leaders in artificial intelligence was challenged this weekend with the rise and rise of China's Deepseek - a product demonstrating that not only can AI be rolled out extremely cheaply and effectively, but also that the US' targeted chips sanctions are failing to contain China's tech industry.
• The sharp Deepseek-triggered slide in equity futures (Nvidia's pre-market trade has wiped out near $300bln in market cap) is helping underpin haven currencies this morning, tipping USD/JPY to new YTD lows. 2025 range in GBP/JPY has been defined by the upleg posted off late November lows - with markets finding both the 76.4% retracement of the fade off highs as a decent support mid-January and 194.81, the 38.2% Fib, as a solid inflection point to cap last week's rally.
• As a result, AUD and NZD are among the poorest performers, with the effect compounded by Trump's tariff sabre-rattling toward Colombia over the weekend. The USD Index is near last week's lows, holding close to the lowest levels of 2025. The Fed decision mid-week looks key here - as Powell's messaging on rates across this year is set to steer price action.  
• Focus for the Monday session remains on the ebb and flow of risk sentiment, with fragility in market-leading US tech stocks driving both headlines indices as well as broader price action. US new home sales, Chicago Fed national activity and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity data are the schedule highlights. Central bank comms are set to be quiet, with both the Fed and ECB inside their pre-decision media blackout periods.

The slightly stronger-than-expected German IFO print has not moved the needle for the single currency on Monday, as broader tech concerns continue to dominate risk-off sentiment across global markets.

• This has seen EUR crosses come under significant pressure against the notorious safe havens, with EURJPY and EURCHF printing fresh session lows in recent trade, down 1.16% and 0.67% respectively on the session.
• EURCHF has now mostly eradicated its strong Friday gains, inspired by the stronger-than-expected Eurozone PMIs, and support here is at 0.9416, the 20-day EMA.
• However, note the fact that the impact of lingering reconsideration of tech capex spending necessities appears US-centred - EURUSD is well off its daily lows and has just edged back above 1.05 in recent trade. Immediate resistance stands at 1.0521 (Friday’s high), and above here the market will look to 1.0574, the 38.2% retracement of the Sep 25 - Jan 13 bear leg. Support for the pair moves up to 1.0377, the 20-day EMA.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Moscow is yet to receive signals from the White House about a meeting or call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, noting a "certain amount of time" was needed before a meeting could take place, per Reuters. 

• Comes after Peskov said on Friday: “Putin’s ready, we’re waiting for signals. Everyone is ready.”
• Putin said in an interview on Friday: "We have always said, and I want to emphasise this again, we are ready for these talks on the Ukrainian issue."
• In the interview, Putin appeared to offer Trump a sweetener, supporting Trump’s claims that the US presidential election was “stolen” and the Ukraine war could have been avoided if Trump were president: “...if they hadn't stolen victory from him in 2020, the crisis that emerged in Ukraine in 2022 could have been avoided."
• The comments are consistent with regular Kremlin comments signposting openness to talks, but the more conciliatory language appears to signal a more genuine pivot to reopening lines of communication than during the Biden administration.
• Putin's comments came after Trump issued his first threat to Russia since taking office: “If we don’t make a “deal,” and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on [Russia]...”
• Politico notes: “Putin and his inner circle aren’t taking Trump’s recent sanction threats seriously, instead seeing it as posturing ahead of actual direct talks about the war in Ukraine.”