BOE: MNI BOE Review / UK Issuance Deep Dive - March 2024 In case you missed it,
we published our BOE Review and UK Issuance Deep Dive on Saturday morning: *
Together with the change in the vote shift and looking more closely at the
Minutes and Governor Bailey's accompanying statement, we think that there was a
significant dovish shift. * The MNI Markets team continues to see around a 15%
probability of a first cut in May, increase our view of the first cut in June to
35% (up from 30%), maintain our 40% probability view of an August first cut and
now see a 10% probability (down from 15%) of the first cut being delayed
further. * We also analyze how analyst expectations have evolved. There has been
a slight shift in expectations post-meeting here with 3/22 analysts still
expecting a first cut in May, 10/22 June, 9/22 August with none of the analyst
reviews we have read looking for a first cut in September. * In addition, we
look at the DMO's issuance alongside the BOE's APF sales calendars for the April
to June period. For the full PDF including summaries of over 20 sellside views,
issuance calendars and key gilt operations details click here.:
https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/60487/MNI%20BoE%20Review%20-%20Mar24.pdf
Mar-25 06:32
