SOUTH AFRICA: Analysts Play Down Risks From Budget Delay

Feb-20 09:08

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Analysts took yesterday's postponement of the 2025 Budget Speech in stride, playing down the potenti...

Historical bullets

GILT SYNDICATION: 4.375% Jan-40 gilt: Books open

Jan-21 09:04
  • Guidance: 4.25% Sep-39 gilt +4.00/+4.25bps
  • Size: GBP Benchmark (MNI expect GBP5.0-6.5bln)
  • Expected Settlement Date: 22-January-2025 (T+1)
  • ISIN: GB00BQC82D08
  • Joint Leads: DB (B&D / DM) / JPM / MS / Nomura / RBC CM
  • Timing: Books open, today’s business

From market source

EGBS: Spreads To Bunds Marginally Wider

Jan-21 08:58

Trump’s apparent focus on imposing tariffs on Mexico & Canada in the coming weeks helps promote some modest EGB spread widening to Bunds today, although the major 10-Year cross-market differentials are within 1bp of yesterday’s closing level. 

  • Bund futures have pulled back from overnight highs, limiting the spread widening as the risk-off moves fade from extremes.
  • 10-Year BTP/Bunds closed below 110bp, with cycle closing lows located at 106.4bp.
  • Meanwhile, 10-Year OAT/Bunds last ~77.5bp, with French political and fiscal risks helping keep that spread above 75bp.
  • Supply pressure is set to come via the French and Lithuanian syndications, with German green supply also scheduled.

USD: EUR and the Pound are testing their intraday lows

Jan-21 08:50
  • The EUR and the Pound are falling back to where they fell Overnight post Trump's Tariffs headline, both EURUSD and Cable are back to their overnight intraday lows.
  • Not Yet seeing any broader moves versus G10s at least.
  • Small support in Cable comes at 1.2222, and a push all the way down to ~1.2186 would reverse Yesterday's WSJ story on Tariffs.
  • EURUSD would need to drift to 1.0320 to reverse that move.