EM CEEMEA CREDIT: SASOL: Awarded damages

Lagarde plays down the need for forward guidance, in line with GC colleagues over the last few weeks (e,g Nagel and de Guindos): “We have a method, we will apply the method, and we will take all the data that comes in. And data is going to be fascinating, as I said, the price of energy is going to be something that might have a real impact”.

• Earlier, when speaking about why the ECB has not cut by 50bps yet, Lagarde pointed the earlier start to the cutting cycle (e.g. compared to the Fed). 

• Guidance: 3.45% Oct-34 Obli (mid) +8bp area
• Size: EUR benchmark (MNI expects E10-15bln)
• Maturity: 30 April 2035
• Coupon: Short first
• ISIN: ES0000012O67
• Settlement: 29 January 2025 (T+5)
• Bookrunners: BBVA, CACIB, DB (B&D/DM), JPM, MS, SANTANDER
• Timing: Books open, today's business

From market source

• French OAT and the BTP have been helping the German Bund back through its opening gap, small immediate resistance was seen at 132.14 Yesterday, and the contract printed a 132.15 high, this remains.
• Above that area, it opens to 132.41, but better is seen at 132.57.
• The price action is pushing the BTP/Bund spread towards 106.16bps, the December low, and tightest printed spread since October 2021.

(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg):