STIR: Apr'25/Jun'25 SOFR Midcurve Call Spread

The higher-than-expected M/M core / supercore CPI readings reflected stronger pressures in all major sub-categories in January. See table below.

• Notably: Supercore (0.76% vs 0.20% prior) did not reflect the relatively tame OER and rents (0.31% and 0.35% respectively): instead it was well above expected hotels, airfares, and auto insurance in the services categories, with core goods jumping (used vehicles playing a role).
• Also note that there were revisions across categories, as shown in the table below (housing categories in December were basically unaffected, as were the main aggregates; core goods were "actually" sequentially weaker in December than previously estimated).

• Treasury futures extended highs briefly before reversing course - trading lower across the board on higher than expected CPI inflation data.
• The Mar'25 10Y tapped 109-05 high before reversing course to 108-10.5 low (-20), through initial technical support of 108-20.5 (Low Feb 4) and heading towards next support of 108-06 (Low Jan 23).
• Tsy 10Y yield climbs to 4.6187% high, curves off flatter levels: 2s10s +.573 at 25.141.

• Unrounded % M/M (SA): Headline 0.467%; Core: 0.446% (0.210% prior mth, revised down from 0.225)
• Unrounded % Y/Y (NSA): Headline 3%; Core: 3.258% (3.238% prior mth)
• MNI had seen unrounded estimates average 0.29% M/M for core CPI