EM CEEMEA CREDIT: AYDEMT: FY24 results impacted by significant write downs

• On the commodity front, a bull cycle in {O4} Gold remains in play and the yellow metal has again traded to a fresh cycle high, today. The continued appreciation once again confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2917.5, the 1.764 projection of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing. The first key support to watch is $2776.3, the 20-day EMA.
• In the oil space, recent weakness in WTI futures marks an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.20. Price has traded through the average, a clear break of it would suggest scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $68.05, the Dec 20 ‘24 low. On the upside, a clear reversal higher would refocus attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high and a key resistance. Initial resistance is $75.18, the Feb 3 high.

• The Dollar is more mixed going into the US Session, after mostly trading in the green overnight and into the European session on Tariffs Risks, the Dollar is still paring gains here, DXY falls to session low, and AUD, GBP, PLN, SGD, CZK, SEK, NOK, NZD test their best levels for the session.
• Moves are still gradual overall, nothing fast, while multi cross assets are still seeing a two way price action, Gold has been one of the standout mover in early trade.

The latest CFTC CoT report (covering the week ending 4 February) showed leveraged funds, asset managers and non-commercial investors extending on their respective net positioning biases.

• Leveraged funds added over $15mln DV01 equivalent of fresh net shorts across the curve. FV drove the bulk of that swing (over $12mln DV01 equivalent of fresh net shorts added), while net shorts were also added in UXY & US futures. Meanwhile, they trimmed their net shorts across the remainder of the curve (TU, TY & WN futures). The cohort remains net short across all contracts.
• Asset managers marginally extended on their net long position in curve-wide DV01 equivalent terms, adding just over $1mln of fresh net longs. Relatively aggressive trimming of TY net longs (over $9mln DV01 equivalent) and cover of some TU longs limited the overall positioning swing, with net long setting seen across the remainder of the curve. The cohort remains net long across all contracts.
• Non-commercial investors flipped to net short US futures from net long, while adding to existing net shorts across the remainder of the curve (see table below).

Source: MNI - Market News/CFTC/Bloomberg