US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: June'25 10Y Sale

Total $3.5B PepsiCo 4pt debt launched recently. Still waiting on IBM 5pt to launch. For comparison, IBM had issued $5.5B back in January 2024 covering 7 tranches: $600M 2Y +45, $500M 3Y +55, $500M 5Y +65, $500M 7Y +75, $1B 10Y +85, $1B 20Y +85, $1.4B 30Y +100

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 02/05 $5.5B #Republic of Poland $2.75B 5Y +75, $2.75B 10Y +105
• 02/05 $3.5B #PepsiCo $500M 2Y +22, $750M 3Y +27, $1B 5Y +40, $1.25B 10Y +60
• 02/05 $3B #UBS $1.5B PerpNC5.5 7%, $1.5B PerpNC10 7.125%
• 02/05 $2.5B #US Bancorp $1.3B 6NC5 +80, $1.2B 11NC10 +100
• 02/05 $2.5B #IDA 10Y SOFR+61
• 02/05 $2B #Citigroup PerpNC5 6.95%
• 02/05 $1B #Minera Mexico 7Y +140
• 02/05 $1B #Citadel Finance 5Y +170
• 02/05 $1B *KFW 4% 2026 TAP SOFR+20
• 02/05 $1B #BBVA Mexico 10NC5 7.625%
• 02/05 $500M #Healthpeak LLC 10Y +102
• 02/05 $Benchmark IBM 3Y +45, 5Y +60, 7Y +70, 10Y +80, 30Y +105
• 02/05 $Benchmark Pacific Life 5Y +80a
• 02/05 $2.5B Republic of Turkiye 7Y 7.2%
• Expected Thursday:
• 02/06 $Benchmark IFC 4.5Y SOFR+36a

• RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19
• RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 swing   
• RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7 
• RES 1: 1.2550 High Feb 5
• PRICE: 1.2517 @ 16:00 GMT Feb 5
• SUP 1: 1.2411/2249 20-day EMA / Low Jan 3   
• SUP 2: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
• SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing    

Resistance levels in GBPUSD at 1.2503, the 50-day EMA, and 1.2523, the Jan 27 high, have been cleared. This cancels a recent bearish threat and instead reinstates the bull cycle that started Jan 13. The break higher paves the way for a climb towards 1.2610, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.2249, the Jan 3 low. A break of this level would highlight a reversal.            

• Yen outperformance remains the key feature of the day in G10 currency markets, as USDJPY looks to consolidate a 1.25% move lower, extending the most recent bearish theme for the pair. Moves have been underpinned by the stronger-than-expected Japanese wage data, fostering a more hawkish BOJ narrative, as well as core yields extending their slide lower in the aftermath of weaker US ISM Services data.
• USDJPY took out a number of supports throughout the session, including a key Fibonacci retracement at 152.55. This further expands the downside range, and the pair is now on track for the lowest daily close since December 10th, narrowing the gap to more meaningful support at 151.81, the Dec 12 low. Below here, attention would be on 151.06, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg.
• Following the US data, EURUSD managed to match the 50-day EMA resistance to the pip (at 1.0442), which has helped EURJPY to extend session lows in late trade, currently down 0.9% on the session, comfortably back below the pivotal 160.00 mark. Price action sees the cross narrow the gap to Monday’s lows of 157.97.
• Elsewhere, a solid showing for equities has kept the US dollar on the back foot, and the firmer risk sentiment has in turn boosted the likes of AUD and NZD which are up 0.6% and 0.75% respectively.
• Resistance levels in GBPUSD at 1.2503 (50-day EMA) and 1.2523 (Jan 27 high), have been breached Wednesday. This cancels a recent bearish threat and instead reinstates the bull cycle that started Jan 13. The break higher paves the way for a climb towards 1.2610, a Fibonacci retracement.
• German factory orders and UK construction PMI are highlights of a quiet Thursday calendar, before the Bank of England decision takes focus. US jobless claims and Fed speakers will also garner interest.