NATGAS: TTF Bounces Within €4/MWh Range Seeking Market Clarity

FRBNY EFFR for prior session:

• Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.33% (+0.00), volume: $92B
• Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.33% (+0.00), volume: $278B

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has stated at the first Ukraine Contact Group meeting since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, that although the US wants to see a "sovereign Ukraine," returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is "unrealistic". 

• Hegseth says Trump "intends to end the war through diplomacy". Adds that Ukraine's NATO membership should not be part of a peace plan and says "lower energy prices will help bring Russia to the table."
• Hegseth says, "as part of any security guarantee there will not be US troops deployed in Ukraine," noting that Europe needs to do more to cover the cost of Ukraine's security. Hegseth reiterates a Trump position that European NATO members should raise defence budgets to 5% of GDP - a target that only Poland is close to hitting.
• Hegseth says the US, "will no longer tolerate an unbalanced relationship," and says a greater division of labour needs to be struck so the US can prioritise other threats, including from China.
• Today's meeting is the first event in a flurry of diplomacy designed to kickstart peace talks. VP JD Vance will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday at the Munich Security Conference. Vance will be joined by Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, who is expected to travel onwards to Kyiv.
• Bloomberg reports Kellogg “plans to gather input” from Munich and Ukraine to “present Trump with options in the coming weeks to end the war”.
• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will travel to Ukraine this week to discuss with Zelenskyy efforts to resolve the war and a plan for the US to secure access to critical minerals.

• RES 4: 134.94 High Dec 17            
• RES 3: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
• RES 2: 134.29 High Dec 20
• RES 1: 133.04/71 50-day EMA / High Feb 5                 
• PRICE: 132.34 @ 13:47 GMT Feb 12 
• SUP 1: 131.85/62 Trendine drawn from the Jan 15 low / Low Jan 31      
• SUP 2: 131.00 Low Jan 16 / 24            
• SUP 3: 131.00/130.28 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 130.44 Low Jul 5 ‘24 (cont)     

Bund futures have traded lower today as the contract extends the pullback from the Feb 5 high. Price has traded through support at the 20-day EMA - at 132.63. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and sights are on 131.85, a trendline drawn from the Jan 15 low. A key support lies at 131.00, the Jan 16 / 24 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 133.71, the Feb 5 high. A break would resume the recent bull cycle.