US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: June'25 2Y

• Treasuries have extended yesterday’s rally that received a helping hand from lower-than-expected jobs openings, with today’s gains amidst broader FI rallies including from EGBs and Gilts.
• Today’s calendar focus is primarily on Treasury’s QRA at 0830ET (MNI Refunding Preview here) before ISM services for January at 1000ET. US policy headlines will also be closely watched, especially on US-China trade relations.
• Cash yields are 2.3-4.2bp lower, with declines led by 7s.
• 2s10s is within recent ranges at 28.5bps (-1.6bp).
• TYH5 sits close to session highs of 109-15 (+ 08+) on solid cumulative volumes of 410k.
• It challenges resistance, having cleared 109-10 (50-day EMA) and now eyeing 109-15+ (Feb 3 high). A clear break of the 50-day EMA would strength a short-term bullish case and open 109-31 (Dec 18 high).
• Data: MBA mortgages (0700ET), ADP employment Jan (0815ET), Trade bal Dec (0830ET), S&P Global US serv/comp PMI Jan final (0945ET), ISM services Jan (1000ET)
• Fedspeak: Barkin BBG TV (0730ET), Barkin fireside chat (0900ET), Goolsbee at automotive conference (1430ET), Bowman update on economy and bank regulation (1500ET), Jefferson gives lecture after the close (1930ET) in remarks likely to heavily resemble yesterday’s speech – see STIR bullet.
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $64B 17W bill auction (1130ET)

Norwegian secondary house prices rose a notable 1.4% M/M SA in January, up from 1.0% in December and well above Norges Bank’s 0.5% M/M projection in the December MPR. All else equal, this will be a hawkish input into Norges Bank’s March rate path, but is unlikely to deter a well-signalled 25bp cut.

• Low supply of new built homes since the pandemic has shifted demand towards existing homes, and continues to be a key driver of existing home price rises.
• Eiendom Norge also point to “less uncertainty about the household economy going forward” alongside “moderate relief in lending regulations”.
• There were record numbers of home listings and sales in January, according to the press release.
• There was little reaction in NOK to the data, with NOKSEK extending session lows at typing amid continued SEK strength, now 0.3% lower today, 

OAT Block trade, suggest buyer:

• OATH5 ~1k at 124.62.