US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: March'25 10Y Sale
Jan-30 16:40
* -5,000 TYH5 109-03, sell through 109-03.5 post time bid at 1134:45ET, DV01 $320,000. The 10Y con...
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FOREX: Dollar Index Set to Close 2024 at Yearly Highs
Dec-31 16:35
- We have seen some constructive price action for the greenback to finish the year, with the USD index shrugging off the early session declines to now trade firmly in the green, up 0.31% and potentially assisted by month/year end dynamics.
- EURUSD has traded with an offered tone throughout the US session, sliding to the worst level of the week below 1.0350, just ahead of key support at 1.0335, the Nov 22 low and a bear trigger.
- USDJPY has also recovered well, rallying over 100 pips from the overnight lows, with spot now rallying back above the 157.00 handle. Officials at the BOJ fear that the real neutral rate of interest could be even lower than the previously-estimated range, MNI understands.
- Aussie and Kiwi are also notable underperformers to end the year, with both AUDUSD and NZDUSD sitting at cycle lows and the lowest levels since October 2022, below 0.62 and 0.56 respectively. For AUDUSD, scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection.
- The broad dollar bid has also assisted USDMXN to a fresh year-to-date high above 20.84 at typing. The pair had a clean break of 20.40 during yesterday’s session and saw solid follow through amid the breakdown for major equity indices. While price action may have been exacerbated by the lower holiday liquidity, the imminent Trump presidency and Banxico in easing mode are likely weighing on the peso.
US TSYS: Curves Climbing Steeper
Dec-31 16:28
- Tsy curves are climbing steeper ahead midday, long end rates leading a modest sell-off in the last half hour: 2s10s +3.862 at 32.745, 5s30s +1.330 at 40.205.
- The Mar'25 10Y futures contract trades down to 108-27 low (-4), with 10Y yield tapping 4.5649% high (+.0323).
US STOCKS: Early Equities Roundup: Double Digit Gains For 2024
Dec-31 16:19
- Stocks cling to mildly mixed levels in quiet year end trade Tuesday. Though off this year's record highs (SPX Eminis 6178.75, DJIA 45,073.63, Nasdaq 20,204.58) major averages will finish the year with double digit gains: SPX Eminis +19.5%, DJIA +13.1%, while the Nasdaq gained 29.9%!
- Currently, the DJIA trades up 20.69 points (0.05%) at 42594.86, S&P E-Minis down 8 points (-0.13%) at 5951.25, Nasdaq down 52.5 points (-0.3%) at 19435.7.
- Energy and Real Estate sectors outperformed in the first half, oil & gas stocks buoyed the Energy sector as crude prices continued to rise (WTI +0.69 at 71.68): APA Corp +3.12%, Marathon Petroleum +2.52%, Occidental Petroleum +2.15%.
- Shares of specialized and industrial REITs supported the Real Estate sector: Crown Castle and Healthpeak Properties both +1.40%, Weyerhaeuser +1.11%, SBA Communications +1.07%.
- On the flipside, Information Technology and Communication Services shares underperformed early Tuesday, shares of software and semiconductor makers weighed on the tech sector: Crowdstrike Holdings -0.80%, Fortinet -0.63%, Nvidia -0.60%.
- Interactive media and entertainment shares weighed on the Communication Services sector: Live Nation -0.58%, Netflix -0.36%, T-Mobile -0.06%.
- Looking ahead, the next round of quarterly earnings kicks off mid-January with Blackrock, Bank of NY Melon, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, US Bancorp, M&T Bank and PNC all reporting between January 13-16.
