US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Citi Warn Low Churn Labor Market Isn’t A Healthy One

• RES 4: 1.4674 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19 
• PRICE: 1.4353 @ 20:05 GMT Jan 7 
• SUP 1: 1.4322/4280 20-day EMA / Low Jan 6  
• SUP 2: 1.4232 Low Dec 17 
• SUP 3: 1.4155 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5

USDCAD traded lower Monday. The trend set-up remains bullish and the move down is considered corrective. The latest pause in the uptrend appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. 1.4322, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would open 1.4155, the 50-day EMA.

• Treasuries have drifted sideways since establishing lows after this morning's data: JOLTS report saw surprisingly elevated job openings in November but the quits rate reversed a surprise increase from back in October. Job openings 8090k (cons 7740k) in Nov after an upward revised 7,839k (initial 7,744k) in Oct.
• Headline ISM index strengthened to 54.1, a little higher than the 53.5 expected (52.1 prior), with New Orders (54.2, 53.7 prior) and Employment (51.4, 51.5 prior) exactly matching survey expectations. But Prices Paid soared to 64.4 (57.5 expected, 58.2 prior), jumping by the most since January to the highest level in 22 months.
• The Mar'25 10Y contract slipped below Dec 26 low to 108-01.5 low (-15.5), 10Y yld climbing to 4.6972% high. Though Tsy curves climbed to new three year highs (2s10s 39.618), projected rate cuts for 2025 continued to recede with June 25 no longer fully pricing a 25bp rate cut. Current lvls this morning levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 at -1.2bp (-2.3bp), Mar'25 -10.2bp (-10.9bp), May'25 -14.7bp (-16.3bp), Jun'25 -23.2bp (-24.2bp).
• Reminder, much of Thursday's data has been moved to Wednesday (Wholesale Sales, Weekly Jobless Claims) as well as the 30Y Bond auction re-open to avoid conflicts with Thursday's Federal Holiday/day of Mourning for former President Carter. The CME Group FI trade closes at 1315ET Thursday. Thursday still includes Challenger Job cuts at 0730ET, Tsy 4- & 8W bill auctions at 1130ET, and several scheduled Fed speakers through the day.

• RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
• RES 3: 0.6400 50-day EMA               
• RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18   
• RES 1: 0.6273/0.6302 20-day EMA / High Jan 6
• PRICE: 0.6239 @ 20:02 GMT Jan 7 
• SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31 
• SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support 
• SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

Despite Monday’s gains, a bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6276, 20-day EMA. It has been pierced. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6400.