OIL: Competition In USWC From TMX Expansion Not As Severe As Feared

EGB spreads to Bunds -1bp to +1bp.

• Equity rally promotes some outperformance for the likes of GGBs and BTPs.
• GGBs continue early ’25 outperformance, aided by fiscal/ratings trajectory and the PDMA’s conservative ’25 issuance target. Spread to Bunds further below 75bp, on track for another cycle closing low.
• BTPs have tightened by a similar amount, despite today’s dual-tranche syndication, with expectations for solid demand evident. Spread to Bunds nearing 110bp, a level not closed below since December 11.
• PGBs the laggard this morning, widening by ~1bp, perhaps driven by expectations for a PGB syndication announcement.
• OATs little changed vs. Bunds, spread 78.5bp.

EUR Benchmark 10Y Fixed (Aug. 1, 2035) BTPS+9 Area

• Coupon: Semi-annual, act/act, short first
• UOP: General purposes
• See security information: 10Y Fixed

EU5b WNG 20Y Green Fixed (April 30, 2046) BTPS+8 Area

• Coupon: Semi-annual, act/act, short first
• Format: Green bond
• UOP: In accordance with Italy’s Framework for the Issuance of Sovereign Green Bonds
• See security information: 20Y Fixed
• Issuer: Italy Buoni Poliennali Del Tesoro (BTPS)
• Ratings: Baa3/BBB/BBB
• Format: Reg S, dematerialized, senior unsecured, 144a eligible, CAC
• Settlement: Jan. 15, 2025
• Denoms: 1k x 1k
• Bookrunners: SIENA, BNPP (B&D), Citi, CA-CIB, NatWest Markets, UniCredit

(As per Bloomberg).

New 10-year BTP:

• Tranche size: EUR Benchmark (MNI expects E10bln)
• Guidance: 3.85% Feb-35 BTP +9Bps Area
• Maturity: 1 August 2035
• Coupon: Semi-annual, act/act, short first

New 20-year Green BTP:

• Tranche size: E5bln (WNG)
• Guidance: 4.45% Sep-43 BTP +8bps Area
• Maturity: 30 April 2046
• Coupon: Semi-annual, act/act, short first

For both:

• Settlement: 15 January, 2025 (T+5)
• Bookrunners: SIENA, BNPP (B&D), Citi, CA-CIB, NatWest Markets, UniCredit
• Timing: May price today

Details as per Bloomberg