BRENT TECHS: (J5) Trading At Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: $85.20 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 9 - Oct 7 - 29 price swing
- RES 3: $83.97 - High Apr 12 ‘24 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 2: $83.28 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $78.80/81.20 - High Jan 23 / 15 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $74.78 @ 07:07 GMT Feb 7
- SUP 1: $74.10 - Low Feb 6
- SUP 2: $71.25 - Low Dec 20
- SUP 3: $70.26 - Low Dec 6
- SUP 4: $69.65 - Low Oct 29 and a key support
Brent futures continue to trade closer to their recent lows. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention remains on the 50-day EMA, at $75.43. The average has been pierced and a clear break of it is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $71.25, the Dec 20 low. A reversal higher would instead refocus attention on the bull trigger at $81.20, the Jan 15 high.
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EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 166.54 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 2: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 164.55 High Jan 7
- PRICE: 163.38 @ 07:14 GMT Jan 8
- SUP 1: 162.55/160.91 20-day EMA / Low Jan 2
- SUP 2: 160.54 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 158.67 Low Dec 11
EURJPY has traded higher this week but remains below the Dec 30 high. The recent move down appears corrective and a bullish short-term condition is intact. The next support to watch lies at 160.54, 50.0% of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle. The 61.8% level is at 159.51. A resumption of gains would open 165.04, the Nov 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would expose 166.69, the Oct 31 high and a major resistance.
MNI: GERMANY NOV RETAIL SALES -0.6% M/M (FCST: 0.5%)
- MNI: GERMANY NOV RETAIL SALES -0.6% M/M (FCST: 0.5%)
- MNI: GERMANY NOV RETAIL SALES 2.5% Y/Y
BTP TECHS: (H5) Southbound
- RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11 and key resistance
- RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 121.94 High Dec 13
- RES 1: 120.45/120.51 High Jan 2 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 119.08 @ Close Jan 7
- SUP 1: 119.01 Low Jul 7
- SUP 2: 118.80 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 118.51 Low Nov 8
- SUP 4: 117.40 Low Nov 7 and a key support
The current bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and the latest fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. The contract has recently breached the 20-day EMA and sights are on 118.80, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bearish theme. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 123.34, the Dec 11 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 120.51, the 20-day EMA.
