OIL: CPC Mooring Resumed Oil Loadings Feb. 4

DSTA notes the borrowing requirement for 2025 is now estimated at 106.4 billion (€1.4 billion higher than the previous estimate). The higher overall borrowing will be funded in full by an increase in money market issuance.

• "The call on the capital market remains unaltered at € 40 billion."
• The borrowing "estimate is surrounded by uncertainty due to several factors in the government finances. Historically, this has led to a lower funding realization at the end of the year compared with the announcement in the beginning of the year."

President Alexander van der Bellen has confirmed that he is tasking leader of the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) Herbert Kickl with forming a coalition gov't. Van der Bellen says Kickl will report back to him as he holds talks with the conservative Austrian People's Party (OVP). This is the second time that Kickl has been given the mandate to seek to form a gov't after the FPO won a plurality of seats in the September 2024 federal election. Then, the OVP refused to engage in talks as the FPO insisted that Kickl would come in as chancellor. 

• However, OVP chair and Chancellor Karl Nehammer announced his resignation over the weekend. The collapse of tripartite talks involving the OVP, centre-left Social Democrats (SPO) and the liberal NEOS, was the first sign that a moderate gov't might not be possible. This was followed by the OVP and SPO proving unable to continue in two-party talks, sparking Nehammer's resignation.
• It had been seen that an FPO-OVP gov't would not be possible with both Kickl and Nehammer leading their respective parties. The resignation of Nehammer could therefore set the stage for a right-wing gov't to come to power in Vienna. The other options include a tripartite gov't involving the OVP, SPO and Greens (very unlikely following the political upheaval of the weekend) or snap federal elections if no stable gov't is feasible. 

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 01/06 $Benchmark Saudi Arabia 3Y +120a, 6Y +130a, 10Y +140a (for context: Saudi Arabia last issued $5B sukuk on May 28: $1.25B 3Y +60, $1.5B 6Y +75, $2.25B 10Y +85)
  • 01/06 $Benchmark Societe Generale 4.25NC3.25 +150a, 4.25NC3.25 SOFR, 8.25NC7.25 +190a
  • 01/06 $Benchmark National Australia Bank (NAB) 5Y +75a, 5Y SOFR, 11NC10 +150a
  • 01/06 $Benchmark Hyundai Cap Am 3Y +100a, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +120a
  • 01/06 $Benchmark India Export-Import Bank 10Y +130a
  • 01/06 $Benchmark MUFG 6NC5 +100a, 11NC10 +115
  • 01/06 $500M DBJ WNG 10Y SOFR+78a
  • 01/06 $Benchmark Kexim investor calls
• $1B Priced last  Friday, $15.6B total for the week