OIL: Crude Weighs Global Growth Concerns with Tighter Supply Risks
Oil prices are drifting slightly lower today amid a rise in US crude inventories and rising global growth concerns from an increase in protectionism. The market weighs the bearish pressure from the rising US trade tensions with China and month delay to tariffs on Mexico and Canada against tighter supply risks from US sanctions on Russia and Iran.
- Trump is expected to restore "maximum pressure" on Iran with a campaign "aimed at driving Iran's oil exports to zero", a US Official said cited by Reuters.
- China’s retaliatory tariffs on the US are neutral for oil prices, given that US crude exports to China are minimal (around 2% of China’s imports in 2024, amounting to 180k b/d), Platts said and are expected to easily find alternative destinations.
- EIA US crude inventories are today expected to show a build of 1.03mbbl and with a small draw for gasoline and larger draw for distillates. Flows from Canada to the US rose ahead of potential tariffs. API data yesterday showed a crude stock build of 5mbbl, according to Bloomberg. Gasoline stocks rose 5.4mbbl and distillates fell 7bbl.
- Global refinery outages in the upcoming spring maintenance season are forecast to fall sharply y/y according to IIR analysis. Seen averaging 5m b/d over Feb. 1-May 31 period, down from a little over 6m b/d last year.
- US gasoline cracks continue to trend upwards to the highest since November while diesel cracks have steady after a rally in late January.
- Brent APR 25 down 0.5% at 75.8$/bbl
- WTI MAR 25 down 0.4% at 72.39$/bbl
- WTI-Brent down 0.03$/bbl at -3.81$/bbl
- Brent APR 25-MAY 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 0.63$/bbl
- Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 down 0.11$/bbl at 2.76$/bbl
- US gasoline crack down 0.1$/bbl at 15.34$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.2$/bbl at 29.38$/bbl
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GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $2762.3 - High Nov 1
- RES 3: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 2: $2726.2 - High Dec 12
- RES 1: $2665.3/2692.8 - High Jan 3 / High Dec 13
- PRICE: $2630.9 @ 07:25 GMT Jan 6
- SUP 1: $2596.2/2583.6 - Low Dec 30 / 19
- SUP 2: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 3: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 4: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
A bear threat in Gold remains present despite the latest recovery, The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. The first firm support to watch is $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, a resumption of gains would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at $2726.2, the Dec 12 high.
CANADA: Trudeau Increasingly Likely To Announce Exit This Week-Globe&Mail
Canadian Prime Minister is set to announce his resignation as leader of the Liberal Party this week, which would pave the way for his removal as head of government, the Globe and Mail said in a report. The announcement could be made before the emergency national caucus meeting scheduled for Wednesday and possibly as soon as today.
- Trudeau has been under pressure to quit for the past few months, which intensified after the resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, arguably the most influential member of his cabinet.
- For the record, the Globe and Mail report mentions that Trudeau has not yet made a final decision. It is also unclear if Trudeau would stay on in caretaker capacity, in the event he indeed decides to quit.
- The report was corroborated by a subsequent source piece circulated by Reuters, which noted that Trudeau's imminent departure has become increasingly likely.
BUNDS: A very busy Week ahead
- A fairly decent overnight session for Bund on the Volume front, and Yields on both sides of the Atlantic are staying elevated, although still short of the December high for the US 10yr.
- The German Bund future has seen a gap lower on the overnight Open, and the big focus will be on the 132.00 support initially.
- The Opening gap is up to 132.50, and a clear break through that area, would open back to 133.10.
- It is a very busy Week ahead, European CPIs, and US Labour Data are due.
- European supply will also be watched, as it is a heavy start for the Year.
- For Today, Services PMIs will be final readings for France, Germany, EU, UK, US. The German CPI, US Factory Orders and final Durables good are the notable data for Today's session.
- SUPPLY: US Sells $58bn of 3yr Notes.
- SPEAKERS: Fed Cook.
