COMMODITIES: Crude Extends Losses Amid Russia/Ukraine Optimism, Copper Rebounds

• Crude has extended gains from last week, with WTI at its highest level since last summer, supported by fresh sanctions from the US administration on Russia.
• WTI Feb 25 is up by 2.9% at $78.8/bbl.
• Crude curve backwardation has strengthened significantly after the announcement of the latest US sanctions on Russia risks global supplies.
• New US sanctions against Russia will be retaliated against, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry.
• The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish and recent gains have resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high.
• Clearance of this hurdle strengthens a bull theme and opens $79.59, the Jul 5 ‘24 high, followed by $80.14, the Apr 12 ’24 high and a key medium-term resistance.
• Meanwhile, spot gold has fallen by 1.1% to $2,660/oz, the yellow metal’s first decline in five sessions.
• Last week’s gains in gold appear corrective for now, although a continuation higher would open $2,726.2, the Dec 12 high. On the downside, initial support is at $2,642.7, the 50-day EMA, followed by $2,583.6, the Dec 19 low.
• Silver is underperforming today, with the precious metal down by 2.7% to $29.6/oz.
• A bear cycle in silver that started Oct 23 remains in play for now, with initial support seen at $28.748, the Dec 19 low, followed by $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement.

• RES 4: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger 
• RES 3: 110-25   High Dec 12   
• RES 2: 109-28   50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 108-26/109-06 20-day EMA / High Dec 31 
• PRICE:‌‌ 107-10+ @ 19:25 GMT Jan 13
• SUP 1: 107-06   Intraday low   
• SUP 2: 107-04   Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support  
• SUP 3: 107-00   Round number support
• SUP 4: 106-11   2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing  

The trend condition in Treasury futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Today’s bearish start to the week, has once again, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 107-04 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is seen at 108-26, the 20-day EMA.

$13.85B to price Monday, $3B KFW, $2B CADES and others rolled to Tuesday

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 01/13 $2.5B #Standard Chartered $1B 4NC3 +105, $500M 4NC3 SOFR+124, $1B 11NC10 +143
  • 01/13 $2B #Deere $1.25B 10Y +68, $750M 30Y +75
  • 01/13 $1.75B #Rabobank $700M 3Y +40, $300M 3Y SOFR+60, $750M 8NC7 +100
  • 01/13 $1.5B #CBA 5Y SOFR+69
  • 01/13 $1.2B #Eastern Energy Gas $700M 10Y +105, $500M 30Y +125
  • 01/13 $1B #Micron 10Y +102
  • 01/13 $1B *EBRD 5.5Y SOFR+42
  • 01/13 $1B #Plains All American 10Y +120
  • 01/13 $650M Blue Owl Tech Fin 3Y +185
  • 01/13 $500M #Apollo Debt Solutions 7Y +185
  • 01/13 $750M #Ares Strategic 7Y +175
  • 01/13 $Benchmark KHFC 5Y +95a, 5Y SOFR
• May price Tuesday:
  • 01/13 $3B KFW +5Y +43a
  • 01/14 $2B CADES 5Y SOFR+70a
  • 01/13 $Benchmark British Colombia 3Y SOFR+46a
  • 01/14 $Benchmark BNG Bank 5Y SOFR+50a
  • 01/14 $Benchmark CAF 5Y SOFR+90a
  • 01/14 $Benchmark IFC 3Y SOFR+33a