POWER: Dutch 340MW Delesto 2 Gas-Fired Unit Down in Unplanned Outage
The Netherlands' 343MW Delesto 2 gas-fired unit is offline in an unplanned outage that occurred on 1...
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STIR: 91bps of ECB Cuts Priced Through '25
Dovish repricing in EUR STIRs this morning, with the aforementioned French political headlines supporting EGBs. ECB-dated OIS price 94bps of easing through year-end (vs 91bps at yesterday's close). 25bp cuts remain almost fully priced through the January and March meetings, though OIS assigns a flatter policy rate path from Q2 onwards.
- Euribor futures are +2.0 to +3.5 ticks through the blues. Building on yesterday afternoon’s recovery from multi-month lows, ERZ6 is now back above the Nov 6 low of 97.685 at typing.
- Today’s regional calendar is light, with only Italian industrial production due on the data front. We will be tracking comments from ECB hawk Holzmann, who was scheduled to speak from 0800GMT/0900CET.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jan-25 | 2.678 | -24.0 |
| Mar-25 | 2.430 | -48.8 |
| Apr-25 | 2.282 | -63.6 |
| Jun-25 | 2.144 | -77.4 |
| Jul-25 | 2.096 | -82.2 |
| Sep-25 | 2.025 | -89.3 |
| Oct-25 | 2.006 | -91.2 |
| Dec-25 | 1.979 | -93.9 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag
- RES 4: 1.4677 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4369 @ 08:05 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 1.4348/4280 20-day EMA / Low Jan 6
- SUP 2: 1.4232 Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4197 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
The trend set-up in USDCAD remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. The latest pause in the uptrend appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. 1.4348, the 20-day EMA, has recently been pierced. A clear break of the average would open 1.4197, the 50-day EMA.
EU-BOND SYNDICATION: New 3-year / 30-year tap: Books open
New 3-year:
- Tranche Size: E5bln (MNI expected E5-7bln)
- Maturity: 4 July 2028
- Short first coupon | 108 days accrued
- Guidance: MS + 19 bps area
- ISIN: EU000A4D5QM6
3.375% Oct-54 Tap:
- Tranche Size: E5bln (MNI expected E4-6bln)
- Guidance: MS + 130 bps area
- ISIN: EU000A3K4EY2 (Immediately fungible)
For both:
- Settlement: 21 January 2025 (T+5)
- JLMs: Barclays, BNP Paribas, J.P. Morgan (B&D/DM), LBBW, NatWest Markets
- Timing: Books open, today’s business
Note that the sizes are not WNG yet, so could increase on strong demand
