"In my view, this level of a UK terminal rate makes sense as it sits somewhere between the Fed’s terminal rate (around 3%, as suggested by the Fed’s dot plot, or around 1% in real terms) and the ECB’s (around 2%, as suggested by Philip Lane in an interview, with reference to ECB, for a range of measures around 0% in real terms) which would be consistent with the recent historical pattern and with the UK having growth and demographic fundamentals somewhere in between the US and Eurozone."
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Mar'25 5Y/30Y Ultra Bond Steepener
Jan-15 16:39
Latest Block post at 1117:40ET:
+15,933 FVH5 105-31.25 post time offer vs.
-3,648 WNH5 117-02, well through 117-07 post time bid
BOE: Taylor talks of risks both ways
Jan-15 16:37
"If we were to misjudge, or be too late to recognise if this case 1 possibility were developing as the true scenario, then we would be using case 2 policies in a case 1 world"
"We could end up with case 1 policies in a case 2 world, for example. And the risk of case 3 still isn’t necessarily zero either, so the Bank needs to be extremely alert to all real-time and forward-looking signals to get a clear read."