MNI EXCLUSIVE: Ex-RBA Officials On February Meeting

In the $-bloc, rate expectations through December 2025 have firmed by 11–17bps following Friday’s stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data for December. The firming has been led by Canada and Australia, where December pricing strengthened by 17bps and 15bps, respectively. The US market saw a 14bps increase, while New Zealand has risen by 11bps. 

• Looking ahead to December 2025, the projected official rates and cumulative easing across the $-bloc are as follows: US (FOMC): 4.05%, -28bps; Canada (BOC): 2.82%, -43bps; Australia (RBA): 3.75%, -57bps; and New Zealand (RBNZ): 3.02%, -123bps.

Figure 1: $-Bloc STIR (%)

Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

• CHINA DEC EXPORTS +10.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +7.4% Y/Y: CUSTOMS
• CHINA DEC IMPORTS +1.0% Y/Y VS MEDIAN -1.4% Y/Y: CUSTOMS
• CHINA DEC TRADE SURPLUS +$104.84 BLN VS MEDIAN +$100.0 BLN
• CHINA 2024 EXPORT +5.9% Y/Y VS JAN-NOV +5.4% Y/Y
• CHINA 2024 IMPORT +1.1% Y/Y VS JAN-NOV +1.2% Y/Y
• CHINA 2024 TRADE SURPLUS +$992.2 BLN VS JAN-NOV +$882.7 BLN

Chinese equities are under pressure despite the PBOC's latest efforts to support the yuan, with early trading showing most indexes lower. Investors remain unimpressed as today's PBOC comments and Governor Pan's remarks offer little new information. The timing of the announcement, coinciding with onshore market closures, contrasts with prior morning interventions that lifted stocks. Underwhelming economic data and rising geopolitical tensions are further dampening sentiment.

• The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell as much as 1.9%, led by Shenzhou International (-5.2%) and Sunny Optical (-4.8%), making it one of Asia's worst performers. The HSCEI is down more than 18% since October 7, on track for its sixth consecutive daily decline and nearing a technical bear market.
• The HSI is 1.95% lower with HS Tech down 1.70%, while property stocks are lower, although outperforming the wider market, with the Mainland Property Index down just 0.60%. In mainland China equities, the CSI 300 is down 0.45%, while small-cap benchmarks are mixed.
• Broader Asian sentiment also weakened, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropping 0.8%, while US equity futures are also trending lower with S&P 500 eminis 0.35% lower, while Nasdaq eminis are trading 0.40% lower.
• China Trade balance data is due out at some point during the session, with expectations of a $100.00b surplus, slightly above November's reading of $97.44b