OIL: Crude Stocks Continue Building
Bloomberg reported that there was a US oil stock build of another 9mn barrels last week, according to people familiar with the API data. Flows from Canada have been ramped up to beat any tariffs. They rose 400k at the Cushing hub. Product inventories were lower with gasoline down 2.5mn and distillate 600k. The official EIA data is out later today.
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AUD: A$ To Fresh Lows Post Strong US NFP, Inflation Gauge, ANZ Job Ads Today
AUD/USD got to fresh cycle lows of 0.6140 on Friday in the aftermath of the stronger than expected US NFP data. We track slightly higher in early Monday dealings, last near 0.6150, after losing 0.80% for Friday's session to be among the worst G10 performers. Only JPY rose against the USD for Friday's session. The USD BBDXY index got to fresh highs above 1320.
- For AUD/USD technicals, the bears remain in control. Round figure support at 0.6100 will be eyed, while 0.6045 and 0.5994 are projections level of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6257, 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6374. The pair was last sub 0.6000 during the onset of the Covid pandemic in 2020, we saw lows of 0.5510 before support emerged.
- US yields were stronger across the board post the US NFP beat, the 10yr rising to 4.76%, the 2yr 4.38%, in terms of Tsy yields. Fed rate cut expectations were also tempered further.
- The US real 10yr yield rose to 2.34%, fresh highs back to 2023, and was a headwind for US equity market sentiment. The SPX fell 1.54%. AUD/JPY fell sub 97.00, but tracks just above 97.00 in early Monday dealings, still within recent ranges back to Dec last year.
- The aggregate commodity index rose 2.04% per BBG (aided by oil after fresh US oil sanctions on Russia boosted crude), the base metals up nearly 0.80%, but this didn't help the A$ too much.
- Today on the data front we have the Melbourne Institute Inflation gauge and ANZ job adverts. On Thursday we get Dec jobs data.
ASIA: Coming Up In The Asian Session On Monday
| 0200GMT | 1000HKT | 1300AEDT | China Dec Trade Balance |
| 1030GMT | 1830HKT | 2130AEDT | India Dec CPI |
ASIA: Coming Up In The Asia-Pac Session On Monday
| 2145GMT | 0545HKT | 0845AEDT | New Zealand Nov Building Permits |
| 2145GMT | 0545HKT | 0845AEDT | New Zealand Nov Filled Jobs |
| 0000GMT | 0800HKT | 1100AEDT | Australia Dec Melbourne Institute Inflation |
| 0030GMT | 0830HKT | 1130AEDT | Australia Dec ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements |
| 0200GMT | 1000HKT | 1300AEDT | China Dec Trade Balance |
| 0315GMT | 1115HKT | 1415AEDT | Eurozone ECB's Lane & Rehn Speak at AFF |
