POLAND: GDP Growth Expected To Have Accelerated In 4Q24
Feb-13 08:30
Statistics Poland will release flash Q4 GDP data at 09:00GMT/10:00CET, with most desks expecting it to exceed +3% Y/Y, based on their estimates derived from above-forecast data for the whole 2024. Bloomberg consensus is for a 3.3% Y/Y expansion.
- BOS Bank see 4Q24 growth at +3.3% Y/Y, noting that the data for the whole 2024 implies a print in the range of +3.2%-3.5% Y/Y. They write that the flash estimate will not provide any new information except a precise estimate of 4Q24 growth and seasonally-adjusted quarterly growth.
- Based on data for the whole 2024, Credit Agricole estimate that growth accelerated to +3.4%-3.6% Y/Y in 4Q24 from +2.7% in the previous quarter, with the caveat that there are no revisions to the readings for Q1-Q3. The acceleration was likely driven by firmer consumption, investments and net exports, in their view.
- Pekao see 4Q24 growth at +3.2%-3.5% Y/Y and don't see much scope for surprises in the structure of growth. In their view, this would be a solid basis for an acceleration of growth to +4.0% Y/Y this year.
- PKO expect 4Q24 GDP growth to print at +3.4% Y/Y, which they see as a product of a significant increase in consumption and a slower recovery in investments.
- Santander write that 4Q24 GDP growth was likely in the +3.3%-3.7% Y/Y range, assuming the absence of revisions of Q1-Q3 outturns. They bet on the mid-point of this range (+3.5%), which would imply a seasonally-adjusted sequential growth of at least +1.5% Q/Q. They note that the structure of the data will only be revealed in the next publication on February 27.
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EGB SYNDICATION: 10-year GGB: Books open
Jan-14 08:29
- Guidance: MS+107bps area
- Size: Benchmark (MNI expects E3-4bln)
- Maturity: 15 June 2035
- Settlement: 21 January, 2025 (T+5)
- ISIN: GR0124041758
Via Bloomberg / market source
GILTS: Benefitting From Wider Bid
Jan-14 08:27
Gilts track global peers higher, with media reports pointing to the potential for a more gradualist tariff approach from President-elect Trump and Franch political headlines providing support.
- Futures as high as 89.72 before fading back to 89.55.
- Bearish technicals intact, initial support & resistance located at 88.96/90.31.
- Yields 1-3bp lower, curve bull steepens.
- 10s spread to Bunds 2bp tighter, oscillating around 225bp.
- BoE-dated OIS still pricing 44bp of cuts through year-end, SONIA futures flat to +3.0.
- Today’s GBP1.0bln 30-year 1.25% Nov-54 I/L gilt auction will probably get more attention than usual, with the potential for it to be viewed as a litmus test for demand by wider markets given the recent weakness in UK assets.
- Chancellor Reeves’ will appear in the Commons later today, with MPs set to question the UK’s fiscal outlook after the recent increase in market-based fiscal risk premia.
- Don’t expect much of a change in tone, with her focus set to remain on the upholding of fiscal rules and a desire to generate economic growth.
BONDS: EGBs are leading US Treasuries futures higher
Jan-14 08:26
- US Treasuries are getting dragged higher, taking their cue from the price action in EGBs, with both French OAT and the Italian BTP futures leading the early gains, France helped by the Socialist chief hinting that an agreement with the Government could be near.
- Both the Italian BTP and OAT are trading inline, with both Bonds trading by ~1.5bp tighter vs the German 10yr.
- Bund resistance is still seen a little further, up to 131.37 initially, but the German 5yr Supply could limit some of the upside in the Bobl, which equate to 47.3k Bobl.
