SX5E (19th Sep) 4750/4250ps, bought for 95.4 in 18k.
EGBS: Positive French Political Headlines Only Have Marginal RV Impact On OATs
Jan-14 09:24
The 10-Year SPGB/OAT/PGB butterfly is only ~4bp off cycle closing lows, last -52.5bp.
That is despite this morning’s OAT-positive headlines surrounding the possibility of an agreement between the Socialist Party and ruling government (see our political risk team’s bullets for greater colour on that matter).
Such an agreement would likely prove sufficient for the Bayrou government to avoid censure in a 16 January vote.
An agreement would also lessen the immediate political risks the country faces, but France would still face heightened fiscal and political risks over the medium term.
That explains the limited bounce in this structure, which has only rallied by ~1bp on the day.
Fig. 1: 10-Year Spain/France/Portugal Butterfly
Source: MNI - Market NEws/Bloomberg
MNI: ITALY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION NOV 0.3% M/M, -1.5% Y/Y WDA
Jan-14 09:10
MNI: ITALY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION NOV 0.3% M/M, -1.5% Y/Y WDA