POWER: German-French Spot Power Premium Narrows
Mar-14 11:51
The German and French German spot power prices declined on the day with lower demand and higher wind output in both countries. Germany’s premium over France has narrowed slightly to €4.28/MWh, from €5.45/MWh in the previous session.
- The German day-ahead spot on the Epex Spot declined to €92.92/MWh, compared with €121.23/MWh in the previous session.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast to fall to 31.91GWh/h on Saturday and to 24.57GWh/h on Sunday, from 47.2GWh/h on Friday according to Reuters.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise to 11.31GW on Saturday and to 13.53GW on Sunday during base load, up from 6.07GW on Friday. Solar PV output is forecast to rise to 10.12GW on Saturday and to 15.82GW on Sunday during peak load, up from 8.72GW on Friday according to SpotRenewables.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to fall to 50.27GW on Saturday and to 47.13GW on Sunday, from 57.65GW on Friday according to Bloomberg.
- The French day-ahead spot index fell to €88.64/MWh, compared with €115.78/MWh in the previous session.
- Residual load in France is forecast to fall to 45.34GWh/h on Saturday and to 45.58GWh/h on Sunday, from 53.6GWh/h from Friday according to Reuters.
- Power demand in France is forecast to fall to 56.64GW on Saturday and to 54.81GW on Sunday, from 60.61GW on Friday according to Bloomberg.
- Wind output in France is forecast to rise to 9.33GW during base load on Saturday and to 6.75GW on Sunday, up from 3.95GW on Friday according to SpotRenewables.
- French nuclear generation is forecast at 46.97GWh on Saturday and at 47.4GWh on Sunday, from 48.06GWh on Friday, Reuters data showed.
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US TSYS: Treasuries Modestly Lower Ahead of CPI
Feb-12 11:50
- Treasuries broadly consolidate yesterday’s bear steepening, in a move that was driven by spillover from heavy EGB supply but also what became an inflation expectations move as the 5Y breakeven pushed to a fresh high since Mar 2023 in the second half of the session.
- Today's focus is on the US CPI report for January including annual revisions MNI US CPI Preview before Powell's potential reaction to it.
- Cash yields are 0-1bp higher on the day, with 2s leading the increases.
- 2s10s sits at 24.6bps (-0.6bp) consolidates yesterday’s steepening, within recent ranges.
- TYH5 trades at 108-29+ (-01) on reasonable cumulative volumes of 315k for a pre-CPI overnight session.
- Its earlier low of 108-26+ saw a step closer to support at 108-20+ (Feb 4 low) after which lies 108-06 (Jan 23 low) although a corrective pull phase remains in play with resistance at 110-00 (Feb 7 high).
- Data: CPI Jan (0830ET), Federal budget bal Jan (1400ET)
- Fedspeak: Powell House testimony (1000ET), Bostic on economic outlook (1200ET, Q&A only) and Waller on stablecoins (1705ET, text + Q&A)
- Coupon issuance: US Tsy $42B 10Y Note auction - 91282CMM0 (1300ET)
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $62B 17W bill auction (1130ET)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Bounce Highlights A Potential Reversal
Feb-12 11:40
- On the commodity front, a bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal is trading closer to its recent highs. The continued appreciation once again confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a 2.00 projection of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing. The first key support to watch is $2779.3, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows. This highlights the fact that the 50-day EMA - at $72.21, despite being pierced, has provided firm support. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode condition highlighting a dominant uptrend. The latest recovery also signals a stronger reversal of the Jan 15 - Feb 6 bear leg. Sights are on $75.18, the Feb 3 high. Key short-term support and the bear trigger lies at $70.43, the Feb 6 low.
EURIBOR: Put Condor buyer
Feb-12 11:28
ERM5 97.8125/97.75/97.6875/97.5625 broken p condor, bought for half in 8k.
