CANADA: Gov't Support Recovering Amid Trudeau Resignation & Trump Tariffs

SPX: 6,003.3 (+0.5%); DJIA: 42,897 (+0.4%/+190pts); NDX: 21,632.4 (+0.3%).

Shaping up to be another busy day for corporate bond issuance - unlikely to outpace Monday's record $59.55B.

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 01/07 $5B #ADB 3Y SOFR+31
• 01/07 $1b #Kuwait Finance House (KFH) 5Y SOFR Sukuk +95
• 01/07 $6B European Investment Bank (EIB) 5Y SOFR+42
• 01/07 $500M DBJ WNG 10Y SOFR+73
• 01/07 $500M Boston Gas WNG 10Y +145a
• 01/07 $Benchmark Chile 12Y +137.5a
• 01/07 $Benchmark World Bank 7Y +54
• 01/07 $Benchmark Met Tower 3Y +70a
• 01/07 $Benchmark CIBC 5Y SOFR+75a
• 01/07 $Benchmark Protective Life 7& +105a
• 01/07 $Benchmark Kommunalbanken 5Y +51
• 01/07 $Benchmark Santander 5Y +135a, 10Y +160a
• 01/07 $Benchmark APA Corp 10Y +180a, 30Y +215a
• 01/07 $Benchmark Cncl of Europe Dev Bank 5Y SOFR+45a
• 01/07 $Benchmark GA Global Funding 5Y +120a, 10Y +150a
• 01/07 $Benchmark HPS Corporate Lending 3Y +165a, +7Y +195a
• 01/07 $Benchmark Kexim 3Y +55a, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +75a, 10Y +90a
• 01/07 $Benchmark SMFG 5.25Y +100, 5.25Y SOFR, 7Y +110a, 10Y +120a
• 01/07 $Benchmark Daimler Truck Fin NA 3Y, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +105a, 7Y +115a, 10Y +125a
• Expected Wednesday:
• 01/08 $Benchmark Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) 5Y SOFR+45a

J.P.Morgan write “trade war/tariff uncertainty from US Trump policy remains a downside risk to Euro area growth and given the recent back up we now turn bullish on Euro duration (receive 1Yx1Y ESTR, enter longs in 10Y Bunds).” 

• They think that the “heavy January supply calendar is already baked into intermediate German yield valuations.”
• Meanwhile, in the UK, they believe that “valuations in GBP rates are cheap vs. our BoE forecast (~60bp of easing priced over 2025 vs. J.P.Morgan’s 100bp forecast)” but “are more cautious on entering outright longs in GBP rates given the fiscal easing announced in October adds uncertainty over the path of BoE easing.”