EM ASIA CREDIT: Indonesia cuts key rates by 25bp

• RES 4: 6184.00 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 6200.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 2: 6194.19 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing   
• RES 1: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and the bull trigger       
• PRICE: 6129.75 @ 07:21 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 6097.76 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 6043.00/6004.31 Low Nov 26 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5970.25 Low Nov 21  
• SUP 4: 5921.00 Low Nov 19

The S&P E-Minis contract remains bullish and the latest shallow pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for a continuation near-term. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. A resumption of the trend would open 6145.26, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 6097.76 the 20-day EMA.

BBDXY still below Friday’s highs & closing levels, with a modest move lower in U.S. yields noted.

• All of the major USD pairs sit within 0.3% of Friday’s closing levels.
• NZD outperforms G10 FX peers.
• NZD/USD a little over 25 pips off Friday’s ’24 low, last 0.5781.
• That is despite domestic monthly inflation data being consistent with further RBNZ easing & NZ PM Luxon highlighting the very challenging economic conditions in place at the moment.
• Weakness in Chinese equities & retail sales data outwound some of AUD’s early outperformance.
• Questions surrounding the durability of any Chinese economic recovery remain evident following the latest round of economic data.
• USD/JPY little changed around 153.65, lower Tsy yields, an uptick in e-minis and the downtick in Chinese stocks offset when it comes to that pair.
• NOK the G10 underperformer (excl. USD) given the move lower in European equity index futures and crude oil.
• Looking ahead, December flash PMIs headline the global data calendar on Monday. We will also see Eurozone Q3 labour cost data
• There will be a raft of ECB speak (recent comments from Lagarde have simply reiterated last week’s post-meeting comments) and comments from BoC Governor Macklem.
• The Fed remains in pre-meeting blackout. Click for our preview of that event: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Dec2024_c2bc263e41.pdf

• RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
• RES 2: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg     
• RES 1: $2726.2 - High Dec 12     
• PRICE: $2654.9 @ 07:23 GMT Dec 16 
• SUP 1: $2643.6 - Intraday low  
• SUP 2: $2605.3/2564.4 - Low Nov 26 / 18
• SUP 3: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support 
• SUP 4: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12  

Gold has pulled back from its recent highs. Trend signals remain bullish and a move lower is considered corrective. A key short-term resistance at $2721.4, the Nov 25 high, has been pierced and this represents a positive development. A continuation higher would expose key resistance at $2790.1, the Oct 31 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. First key support is $2605.3, the Nov 26 low.