REAL ESTATE: Kojamo (VVOYHT: Baa2 neg): FY24
Still struggling in a weak market but leverage coming down and dividend still zero
- Q4 Revenue +0.1% to €113.6m; FY Revenue €452.4m +2.3%
- Q4 Net Rental Income +1.5% €74.4m; FY +1.9% to €302.9m
- FFO dropped 10% to €34.5m; -11.4% FY to €148.2m - financing and maintenance costs have increased
- EBITDA swung to a Positive €131.3m from -€39.9
- LTV 43.9x from 44.6x
- Occupancy fell to 91.5 from 93.0; but did improve in Q4 slightly
- Guidance for 2025 is for 1-4% increase in Revenue
- Dividend remains at Zero
- "Loans maturing this year have been covered" - I assume this includes the Mar 25 bond.
- "next financing arrangements will be for maturities in 2026" - I would read this as a Tender/New Issue coming
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OAT: OAT/Bund Tightens 1.5bps As Faure Notes Agreement With Govt Nearing
Latest French political headlines from BBG: "FRENCH SOCIALIST CHIEF SAYS MAY BE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH GOVT" . This comes ahead of PM Bayrou's general policy speech at 1500CET today.
- The 10-year OAT/Bund spread has tightened ~1.5bps since that headline crossed, now at ~82.5bps.
- Our political risk team noted yesterday that Bayrou's speech is being watched closely for signs of whether he will roll back some of the pension reforms pushed through by President Emmanuel Macron in 2023.
- There has been speculation in recent days that Bayrou could temporarily postpone the gradual raising of the retirement age to 64 in an effort to gain the support of the centre-left Socialist Party (PS) which could be critical in avoiding a successful censure motion.
- However, in appeasing the centre-left Bayrou risks alienating the centre-right.
GILT AUCTION PREVIEW: 1.25% Nov-54 I/L linker
- The DMO will kick off issuance for the week this morning with GBP1.0bln nominal of the 30-year 1.25% Nov-54 linker on offer.
- This is the first auction of the 30-year linker that was launch via syndication in March for GBP4.0bln nominal and then tapped twice via syndication since: for GBP4.5bln nominal in July and GBP4.25bln nominal in November.
- Demand at all of the syndications has been strong with books getting bigger in each transaction, from GBP56.4bln to GBP66.0bln.
- There has not been a 30-year linker auction since January 2024 (when the previous 0.125% Mar-51 linker was being reopened 1-2 times per quarter via auction). Those auctions we so long ago we don’t think there is much to infer from them.
- However, looking at 14+ year linker auctions in 2024 we note the lowest bid-to-cover was 3.08x, with the PAOF utilised in each of these auctions since June. This is the only 1.25% Nov-54 linker auction planned for this quarter.
- Timing: Results will be available shortly after the auction window closes at 10:00GMT with a further GBP250mln nominal on offer at the PAOF.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 2: 6068.25/6107.50 High Jan 6 / High Dec 26
- RES 1: 5991.72 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance
- PRICE: 5893.50 @ 07:22 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 5809.00 Low Jan 13
- SUP 2: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 3: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 12 ‘24
A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present and the contract traded to a fresh short-term low on Monday. The reversal from the Dec 26 high, confirms the end of the Dec 20 - 26 correction. 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support, has been cleared. This strengthens a bearish theme and sights are on 5784.00, the Nov 4 low and an important short-term support. Initial pivot resistance is seen at 5991.72, the 50-day EMA.
