BTP TECHS: (M5) Breaches Key Support

• RES 4: $2917.5 - 1.764 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing    
• RES 3: $2900.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $2867.5 - 1.50 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $2845.2 - 1.382 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing   
• PRICE: $2811.1@ 07:23 GMT Feb 4 
• SUP 1: $2736.4/2692.6 - 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: $2656.9 - Low Jan 13 
• SUP 3: $2614.8 - Low Jan 6  
• SUP 4: $2583.6 - Low Dec 19 and a key support 

A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. Last week’s extension higher and Monday’s gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $2845.2 next, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2692.6, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at $2736.4.

Societe Generale note that “while our economists do not expect the French government to collapse at this stage, more challenges lie ahead.”

• They go on to suggest that “although investors' risk aversion towards OATs has diminished, we believe it is prudent to be defensive and consider re-entering OAT shorts if the OAT-Bund spread decreases to 70bp.”
• Looking ahead, they believe that “additional supply pressure and the potential for credit rating downgrades in H225 should counterbalance still relatively strong domestic and offshore demand for OATs.”

• Tariff Risks continue to drive multi cross assets overnight, the German Bund initially gapped lower, after gapping higher on Monday, in another busy early session.
• Risks remains tilted to the upside for the contract on growth concerns in Europe, and while some will look at 133.58, Yesterday's high for the next resistance, better will now be eyed at the 2.30% level in Yield, which is just below the January low of 2.309%.
• Support comes at Monday's opening gap, down to 132.34.
• There's no Tier 1 Data out of Europe, focus will be on the US Today with US JOLTS, Factory orders, and final Durable Goods.
• SUPPLY: UK £4.25bn 2025 (Equates to ~20.8k Gilt) Could somewhat weigh.
• SPEAKERS: ECB Villeroy, Fed Bostic, Daly.