BTP TECHS: (M5) Bearish Threat

• RES 4: $2900.0 - Round number resistance    
• RES 3: $2867.5 - 1.50 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: $2845.2 - 1.382 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $2817.6 - 1.236 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing   
• PRICE: $2786.7 @ 07:30 GMT Feb 1 
• SUP 1: $2728.1/2687.5 - 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: $2656.9 - Low Jan 13 
• SUP 3: $2614.8 - Low Jan 6  
• SUP 4: $2583.6 - Low Dec 19 and a key support 

A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. Last week’s extension higher resulted in a print above $2790.1, to record a fresh all-time high. The climb confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on $2817.6 next, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2687.5, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at $2728.1.

• RES 4: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg     
• RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 2: 120.25 50.0% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 1: 120.06 Intraday high     
• PRICE: 119.86 @ 07:06 GMT Feb 3 
• SUP 1: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger          
• SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

Recent gains in BTP futures continue to highlight a corrective phase. The latest move higher has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50- day EMAs. This signals scope for an extension and sights are on 120.25, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would highlight a reversal and the end of the correction.

Commerzbank maintain a “constructive duration stance in Bunds.”

• They suggest that any “setbacks from U.S. headwinds or an uptick in euro area inflation should provide better buying opportunities. “GB spreads are more likely to consolidate, in line with the general risk sentiment.”