BTP TECHS: (M5) Bearish Threat
- RES 4: 121.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 120.49 High Feb 7 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 120.12 High Mar 4
- RES 1: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- PRICE: 118.30 @ 07:19 Mar 5
- SUP 1: 118.21 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 117.66 76.4% retracement of the Jan 14 - Feb 7 bull leg
- SUP 3: 117.03 Low Jan 15
- SUP 4: 116.78 Low Jan 14 and a key support
BTP futures have gapped sharply lower today. This undermines a recent bullish theme and instead highlights a developing bear threat. Price is trading below a recent key support at 118.63, the Feb 19 low. A continuation down would pave the way for a move towards 117.66, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 119.31, the Mar 4 low and a gap high on the daily chart.
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GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: $2900.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $2867.5 - 1.50 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 2: $2845.2 - 1.382 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $2817.6 - 1.236 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- PRICE: $2786.7 @ 07:30 GMT Feb 1
- SUP 1: $2728.1/2687.5 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $2656.9 - Low Jan 13
- SUP 3: $2614.8 - Low Jan 6
- SUP 4: $2583.6 - Low Dec 19 and a key support
A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. Last week’s extension higher resulted in a print above $2790.1, to record a fresh all-time high. The climb confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on $2817.6 next, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2687.5, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at $2728.1.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Corrective Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 121.88 76.4% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 3: 120.98 61.8% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.25 50.0% retracement of the Dec 11 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 120.06 Intraday high
- PRICE: 119.86 @ 07:06 GMT Feb 3
- SUP 1: 118.65/117.16 Low Jan 24 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)
Recent gains in BTP futures continue to highlight a corrective phase. The latest move higher has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50- day EMAs. This signals scope for an extension and sights are on 120.25, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial key support to watch lies at 118.65, the Jan 24 low. Clearance of this price point would highlight a reversal and the end of the correction.
EGBS: Commerzbank Remain Constructive On Bunds
Commerzbank maintain a “constructive duration stance in Bunds.”
- They suggest that any “setbacks from U.S. headwinds or an uptick in euro area inflation should provide better buying opportunities. “GB spreads are more likely to consolidate, in line with the general risk sentiment.”
