US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Overbought But Remains Bullish

Our full preview of this week's quarterly Refunding went out on Friday (PDF here). While the main Refunding announcement is not until Wednesday at 0830ET, Monday’s Financing Requirements release, at 1500ET, could provide some key insights into how Treasury forecasts fiscal dynamics through the middle of calendar year 2025. 

• The first caveat is that the estimates will likely have to be taken seriously but not literally. Treasury usually makes the assumption that, when applicable, the debt limit (that it is currently constrained by) will be lifted by Congress.
• It also is likely to assume that Fed QT continues to run as usual (around $75B per quarter since the middle of 2024).
• Those assumptions have large implications for the net borrowing requirements and financing needs.
• MNI is very loosely penciling in the following for Monday’s release, and it would probably require a large deviation from these to have a market impact.

• EUR/USD: $1.0250(E873mln), $1.0280(E910mln), $1.0300(E1.2bln), $1.0320(E1.0bln), $1.0375(E1.0bln), $1.0395-05(E1.4bln), $1.0425-35(E2.4bln)
• USD/JPY: Y152.00($500mln), Y154.00($663mln)
• AUD/USD: $0.6275(A$1.6bln), $0.6335-50(A$896mln), $0.6420(A$1.1bln), $0.6595-00(A$2.5bln)

• 5,000 SFRM5 95.56/95.68/95.81 put flys, 4.75 ref 95.89 at 1123:56ET