EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Turkey: Central Bank decision tomorrow.
Republic of Turkiye (TURKEY; B1pos/BB-/BB-)
Central Bank decision tomorrow.
We think a rate cut of 250bps which is expected tomorrow by the central bank of Turkey should be supportive for domestic investor confidence and spreads, as inflation continues to come lower from elevated levels, as evident by lower FX deposits in the banking sector.
- A former CBRT Deputy Governor told our MNI macro team that “until the end of June there is room for a minimum of 450 basis points and a maximum of 600 basis points of further interest rate cuts.” Similarly, a former senior Turkish government official said he expects “a relatively slow decline in inflation in the second half of the year”, with the policy rate likely to remain at around 40%. Both of these interviews can be found here https://mni.marketnews.com/4ioblFF
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EURIBOR OPTIONS: ERU5 Flow Seen
Some ERU5 option flow to note in recent trade:
- ERU5 98.12/98.00/97.75 broken put ladder paper paid 0.5 on 5.5K.
- ERU5 98.125/98.25 call spread vs. 97.875/97.75 put spread paper paid 1 for the call spread on 4K.
EQUITIES: Equities Continue To Trade Heavily
No tangible recovery for e-minis after the cash open, with much of the tariff-inspired overnight weakness consolidated.
- Fresh selling kicks in following the ISM manufacturing survey, given the headline beat and with prices paid back into expansionary territory.
- The 3 major e-mini contracts are 1.4-2.0% lower vs. settlement, with the NASDAQ 100 the weakest and the DJIA the most resilient.
- Technically, a move through session lows in the S&P 500 contract would expose Fibonacci support at the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5-Dec 6 bull leg (5,892.37).
- The IT, consumer discretionary and industrial sectors lead the move lower, as you would generally expect in a tariff-driven risk-off environment.
- U.S. President Trump’s tariff-centric discussions with the Canadian & Mexican administrations are set to dominate for the remainder of the day.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Trading At Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: 94.50 High Dec 16
- RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 93.64 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 93.44 Intraday high
- PRICE: 93.22 @ 03:02 GMT Feb 3
- SUP 1: 91.99/91.52 20-day EMA / Low Jan 24
- SUP 2: 91.10 Low Jan 20
- SUP 3: 89.68/88.96 Low Jan 15 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 88.87 2.764 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
Recent gains in Gilt futures continue to highlight a corrective phase and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. Last week’s high print and today’s gains, reinforce current conditions. The contract has traded through 93.09, the Dec 20 high. Sights are on 93.64, a Fibonacci retracement. The bear trigger has been defined at 88.96, the Jan 13 low. Initial firm support is at 91.52, the Jan 24 low. First support lies at 91.99, the 20-day EMA.
