CONSUMER STAPLES: Metro AG; S&P comments post Křetínský takeover

• In FX, the trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and recent short-term gains have proved to be a correction. Friday’s move lower resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. The break of 1.0226 confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 1.0138 next, a 1.764 projection of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing. Resistance to watch is 1.0458, Dec 30 high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 1.0361.
• The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and the pair traded to a fresh trend low on Monday. Last week’s move down confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.2087 next, a 0.764 projection of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2367, the Jan 9 high.
• The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last week’s fresh cycle high, reinforces the bullish theme. The recent breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 159.45, the Jul 12 high. Initial firm support is 156.78, the 20-day EMA.

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Eurozone November industrial production is due for release Wednesday, with our tracking estimate pointing to a reading between 0.2% and 0.3%, broadly in line with the Bloomberg consensus of 0.2% M/M. However, we estimate IP excluding Ireland grew around 0.8% M/M, a solid rebound from -0.4% in October. We also estimate an upward revision to the October reading from flat to between 0.1-0.2% M/M. 

• IP rose in five of the seven largest Eurozone members in November, with the remaining two recording negative M/M readings.
• Ireland skewed the value down, recording a fall of 5.8% M/M, reversing October's increase of 5.0%. We estimate this contributes a negative 0.53ppts to EZ IP in November. Spain IP also contributes a negative 0.12ppts with production falling 1.5% M/M - the steepest fall of 2024 so far following growth of 0.9% in October.
• Moderating the downward move, Germany IP rose 1.3% M/M (following two successive months of decline at -0.4% in Oct and -2.5% in Sep), contributing around 0.4-0.5ppts to the Eurozone wide industrial production reading. Belgium IP recorded solid growth of 8.7% M/M - the highest rate recorded in 2024, following a fall of 4.9% in October. French IP also increased slightly by 0.2% M/M (vs -0.3% in October), as did the Netherlands, printing 1.5% M/M (from 0.4% in October). Finally Italian IP rose 0.3% M/M (from 0.1% in Oct).
• Note, Eurostat uses industrial production numbers excluding construction, so the above country numbers may not reflect what was published as headline IP data from the national statistics agencies.