OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Cracks Soften
Mar-20 18:30
Cracks are weaker today despite gains in product flat prices, with any rise outpaced by a sharper strengthening in crude.
- US ULSD crack down 0.3$/bbl at 26.32$/bbl
- ULSD APR 25 up 0.9% at 2.25$/gal
- US gasoline crack down 0.3$/bbl at 23.67$/bbl
- RBOB APR 25 up 0.9% at 2.19$/gal
- US 321 crack down 0.3$/bbl at 24.55$/bbl
- Weakening distillate cracks pressure USGC refining margins, according to Kpler
- ARA oil product stockpiles according to Insights Global: Inventory type, latest level, weekly change (all in thousand metric tons) as follows: Gasoline: 1,423, -87, Naphtha: 369, -, Gasoil: 2,170, -103, Fuel Oil: 1,128, -78, Jet Fuel: 851, +2
- Phillips 66 139,000 bpd Los Angles refinery had a small fire on Tuesday evening the company said, adding it was quickly extinguished.
- ExxonMobil Baytown, Texas Complex Reports Operational Issue: Reuters
- EPA data showed about 1.12 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits were generated in February, compared with about 1.25 billion in January.
- Petrobras hosted its first gasoline A tender in four years on March 19, according to Platts.
- Singapore total oil inventories rose by 1.9mbbl to 46.37mbbl in the week to March. 19, according to Enterprise data.
- Shandong’s teapots continue to struggle with profitability due to a local ban on US sanctioned vessels, higher fuel oil import tariffs, and tighter tax deductions, OilChem said.
- China’s total 2025 offline capacity from maintenance should impact 4.54m b/d of throughput, according to OilChem.
- Introduction of China teapot refinery today an interesting first but Bloomberg’s Javier Blas says it is small and may just be a test by Washington to see effectiveness or resolve from Beijing.
- Russia has overtaken the UAE as India’s top naphtha supplier, according to Reuters.
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Historical bullets
GBPUSD TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains
Feb-18 18:30
- RES 4: 1.2811 High Dec 6
- RES 3: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.2667 High Dec 19
- RES 1: 1.2635 High Feb 17
- PRICE: 1.2615 @ 16:08 GMT Feb 18
- SUP 1: 1.2466 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2333/2249 Low Feb 11 / 3 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
- SUP 4: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. A recent breach of resistance at 1.2550, the Feb 5 high, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Furthermore, 1.2610, 38.2% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg, has been pierced. A continuation higher would strengthen current conditions and open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement. Key short-term support is 1.2333, the Feb 11 low.
US DATA: Dallas Fed Survey Finds Strong Increases In Loan Demand
Feb-18 18:24
- The timely Dallas Fed’s banking conditions survey, collected Feb 4-12, noted that “loan volume continued increasing at a rapid pace in February while loan demand accelerated further.”
- Whilst only a snapshot for one region, it's nevertheless of note with some disagreement on the FOMC as to the level of restrictiveness currently exerted by monetary policy.
- The current period loan demand balance of +30 is up from +11 in the late Dec survey for its highest since May 2022, whilst future loan demand only dipped 3pts to a still elevated +16.
- A net share continue to see tighter credit standards, but with a balance of -10.4 (after -12.5 in late Dec), it poked below the -10.5 in Oct for technically its least since Apr 2022.
- The press release notes that “Loan nonperformance rose across all loan types, while growth in general business activity slowed”. However, we note that the current period NPL ratio at +16 is within recent ranges, which included the Jan 2025 high of +25. What’s more, the balance expecting higher NPLs in the future at +14 was up from two particularly low reports at 4-5 but is stil far lower than the +50 balances seen in 2023.
FED: US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.050%(ALLOT 6.53%)
Feb-18 18:02
- US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.050%(ALLOT 6.53%)
- US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 31.76% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 1.68% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 66.56% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 52W AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.03
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