OIL: MNI U.S. Macro Weekly: Inertia Takes Hold

• FED MINUTES: WANT FURTHER DISINFLATION BEFORE NEXT CUT
• FED: CAN TAKE CAREFUL APPROACH ON CUTS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
• FED SAW INCREASED UPSIDE RISKS TO INFLATION IN JAN MEET
• 'VAST MAJORITY' OF FOMC STILL BELIEVES POLICY RESTRICTIVE
• VARIOUS OFFICIALS-CAN SLOW OR PAUSE QT DUE TO DEBT TALKS
• TRADE, IMMIGRATION COULD HINDER DISINFLATION PROCESS-FED

• RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 0.8420 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg  
• RES 2: 0.8388 61.8% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg  
• RES 1: 0.8347/78 50-day EMA / High Jan 6 and pivot resistance   
• PRICE: 0.8278 @ 16:09 GMT Feb 19
• SUP 1: 0.8266/8248 Low Feb 19 / 3 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support  
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range   
• SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg 

EURGBP traded lower again overnight but - for now - remains inside a range. The early February bounce still appears to have undermined a recent bearish threat. Attention is on 0.8378, the Jan 6 high and a key short-term pivot resistance. Clearance of it would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a resumption of weakness would once again refocus attention on 0.8248, the Feb 3 low and the bear trigger.

Tuesday's US rates/bond options flow included:

• SFRH5 96.06c, traded for half in 4k.
• SFRJ5 95.87/95.81/95.62p ladder, traded for 4 in 2k.
• SFRK5 97.43c, traded for 0.75 in 2k.
• SFRM5 95.93/96.06cs, traded for 1.5 in 7.5k.
• SFRM5 95.68p, traded for 2.5 in 3k.
• SFRM5 95.56/95.68/96.00/96.12 Iron Condor, sold at 2.25 in 3k.
• SFRQ5 95.93^, bought for 34.5 in 2k.
• SFRU5 95.93^, sold at 37 and 36.5 in 8k total
• SFRU5 95.93^, traded for 37 in 2k and 36.5 in 3.5k.
• SFRZ5 96.37/96.12/95.68p ladder, sold at 6.25 in 3k.
• 0QH5 95.93/96.06/96.18/96.43c condor, traded 3.5 in 5k.
• 0QM5 96.06 with 2QM5 96.00 straddle strip, bought for 93 in 1.5k.
• 2QU5 96.62/97.00cs, traded 5 in 3k.