OIL: OPEC+ Expected to Delay April Output Increase: ANZ
Feb-21 09:00
OPEC+ is expected to delay its planned April production increase amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties, according to ANZ Group.
- “OPEC’s ability to phase out production cuts without disrupting the oil market is getting increasingly difficult.”
- The possible global trade war and geopolitical risks surrounding Iran, Russia, and Venezuela provide a tough economic backdrop.
- China’s oil demand growth is forecast to be slightly higher at 300kb/d in 2025, but risks appear skewed to downside.
- OPEC members face rising breakeven levels for oil adding pressure to fiscal budgets.
- The supply increase would bring back 80k-100kb/d a month and would likely pressure futures.
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Historical bullets
BONDS: French OAT and Italian BTP are leading Bonds higher
Jan-22 08:53
- The push higher in Govies continues to be OAT and BTP led, OAT has been bought in close to 10k in a 5 minutes window, and 5k for the BTP.
- There's hasn't been any obvious trigger, and the moves looks to more order flow related, but Some selling interest is emerging now at the top of the range in OAT and BTP, Bund also starts to fade of its intraday high.
ECB: Lagarde: Energy Prices "Might Have A Real Impact"
Jan-22 08:40
Lagarde plays down the need for forward guidance, in line with GC colleagues over the last few weeks (e,g Nagel and de Guindos): “We have a method, we will apply the method, and we will take all the data that comes in. And data is going to be fascinating, as I said, the price of energy is going to be something that might have a real impact”.
- Earlier, when speaking about why the ECB has not cut by 50bps yet, Lagarde pointed the earlier start to the cutting cycle (e.g. compared to the Fed).
EGB SYNDICATION: Spain 10-year Obli: Books open
Jan-22 08:32
- Guidance: 3.45% Oct-34 Obli (mid) +8bp area
- Size: EUR benchmark (MNI expects E10-15bln)
- Maturity: 30 April 2035
- Coupon: Short first
- ISIN: ES0000012O67
- Settlement: 29 January 2025 (T+5)
- Bookrunners: BBVA, CACIB, DB (B&D/DM), JPM, MS, SANTANDER
- Timing: Books open, today's business
From market source
