COMMUNICATIONS: Orange Q4 Results
Feb-13 09:27
ORAFP
Slight positive on broadly in line group results, slightly ahead of consensus EBITDAal guidance and reported leverage ticking lower.
- Q4 revs +1% YoY (-1% vs. cons). FY +1.2% YoY w/ A&ME +11%, France flat, Eur -2%, Business -2%.
- Q4 EBITDAal +3% YoY (+1% vs. cons). FY +3% YoY w/ A&ME +13%, France +1%, Eur +4%, Business -8%.
- Q4 comp EBITDAal less CapEx excl. Spain -6% YoY. FY +3% YoY.
- FY All-In Telco FCF +19% YoY on organic cash gen growth and license phasing.
- Reported EBITDAal leverage of 1.84x from 1.9x at H1 and 2.05x at FY23.
- FY25: EBITDAal ~+3%, org telco FCF EUR 3.6bn (prior guide of EUR 3.5bn), lev policy unchanged at ~2x.
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EQUITIES: Large put spread buyer
Jan-14 09:25
SX5E (19th Sep) 4750/4250ps, bought for 95.4 in 18k.
EGBS: Positive French Political Headlines Only Have Marginal RV Impact On OATs
Jan-14 09:24
The 10-Year SPGB/OAT/PGB butterfly is only ~4bp off cycle closing lows, last -52.5bp.
- That is despite this morning’s OAT-positive headlines surrounding the possibility of an agreement between the Socialist Party and ruling government (see our political risk team’s bullets for greater colour on that matter).
- Such an agreement would likely prove sufficient for the Bayrou government to avoid censure in a 16 January vote.
- An agreement would also lessen the immediate political risks the country faces, but France would still face heightened fiscal and political risks over the medium term.
- That explains the limited bounce in this structure, which has only rallied by ~1bp on the day.
Fig. 1: 10-Year Spain/France/Portugal Butterfly
Source: MNI - Market NEws/Bloomberg
MNI: ITALY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION NOV 0.3% M/M, -1.5% Y/Y WDA
Jan-14 09:10
- MNI: ITALY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION NOV 0.3% M/M, -1.5% Y/Y WDA
