HEALTHCARE: Philips (PHIANA: Baa1/BBB+/BBB+): Q4 FY24

• RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12  
• RES 3: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
• RES 2: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 156.66 20-day EMA    
• PRICE: 156.15 @ 06:56 GMT Jan 20
• SUP 1: 154.97 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 154.44 Low Dec 19 
• SUP 3: 154.16Trendline support drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low 
• SUP 4: 153.16 Low Dec 17  

The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and last week’s move lower appears corrective - for now. The pair has traded through the 20-day EMA and an extension lower would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Support to watch is 154.97, the 50-day EMA. A return higher and a breach of 158.87, the Jan 10 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 159.45, the Jul 12 ‘24 high.

• RES 4: 5261.57 1.382 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: 5215.87 1.236 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing       
• RES 2: 5200.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 1: 5175.00 High Jan 17          
• PRICE: 5163.00 @ 06:35 GMT Jan 20  
• SUP 1: 5113.00/5040.00 Low Jan 17 / High Dec 9         
• SUP 2: 5002.94/4931.00 20-day EMA / Low Jan 13    
• SUP 3: 4829.00 Low Dec 20 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 4775.00 Low Nov 29 

A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact. Last week’s climb resulted in a breach of 5054.00, the Jan 8 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend. The contract is holding on to its gains. The focus is on a climb towards 5200.00, a round number resistance point. Key short-term support has been defined at 4931.00, the Jan 13 low. A break of this level would be bearish.

• Spain (10-year): We look for the first 10-year Obli syndication to take place this week (the first full auction-free week of 2025). This would be a slightly later launch than the past few years. We pencil in a transaction size of E10-15bln.
• EFSF: On Wednesday 15 January, the EFSF sent an RFP with regards to an upcoming syndicated transaction, subject to market conditions.
  • We had written in our Issuance Deep Dive that we expected a dual-tranche EFSF syndication in January. There has been a dual-tranche transaction in early January each year since 2021 with the transactions gradually growing in size (E5.0bln in 2021, E5.5bln in 2022, E6.0bln in 2023 and E7.0bln in 2024). We see E6.0bln as the minimum transaction size with a larger transaction very possible.
  • We don't have a strong view regarding the bonds on offer, but we expect the transaction to take place either today or tomorrow.