MNI BCRP Preview – Mar 2025: Door Open To Further Easing

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Executive Summary

• The BCRP’s interest rate decision is expected to be a close call, as the central bank nears the end of its easing cycle, with a narrow majority of analysts expecting the reference rate to be left on hold at 4.75%.
• After pausing last month, latest inflation data keep the door open to a 25bp cut on Thursday, with headline inflation falling to its lowest level since September 2018.
• However, uncertainty about global trade policies and resilient domestic activity may prompt the BCRP to maintain its cautious stance and extend the pause for another month, especially with the policy rate already close to its neutral level.