US OUTLOOK/OPINION: QT End Dates Shift Back As Fed Goes "Slower For Longer"

Overnight reverse repo facility takeup bounced sharply Tuesday, rising $19.0B (most since Jan 31) vs Friday to $77.8B. 

• That's the highest level since Feb 10 and for the moment brings takeup above the post-April 2021 lows set last week ($58.8B on Friday).
• Takeup is expected to remain steady from here/head higher toward end-month.

MNI interviews former NY Fed senior trader on the monetary policy outlook  -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
 

US President Donald Trump has seen a modest dip in approval since taking office on January 20. According to 538’s approval tracker, Trump currently has a net approval rate of +4.0%, down from +8.2% in late January.

• The dip is approval is likely due to a dip in moderate and soft-Democratic support that helped power Trump’s popular vote victory in November. In particular, several surveys have noted that special advisor Elon Musk and his affiliated Department of Government Efficiency have been poorly received by voters. 
• An Economist survey published last week found, “Just 39 percent of adults under 30-years-old… reported a favorable opinion of Trump. That number stood at 50 percent just two weeks ago.”
• Should Trump’s approval dip further, it may impact the decision-making of Congressional Republicans ahead of a critical period for Trump’s agenda in Congress. All legislation in Congress will require the near-unanimous support of House Republicans. Any signal from voters that plans to cut welfare programmes like Medicaid will put moderates or those representing districts with a high proportion of welfare recipients in a challenging position.

Figure 1: Donald Trump Approval Rating

Source: 538