US: Trump To Sign Executive Order Dismantling Department Of Eduction

• Crude has risen today on reports of reduced CPC pipeline flows and speculation that OPEC is considering another delay to output rises. This is offsetting bearish pressure from US-Russia talks, which could pave the way to a Ukraine peace agreement.
• WTI Mar 25 is up by 1.6% at $71.9/bbl.
• Transneft says the damaged CPC station will take 1.5-2 months to repair and may lead to a 30% drop in Kazakh flows.
• For WTI futures, key short-term resistance is at $74.06, the Feb 3 high. On the downside, attention is on $70.20, the Feb 6 low, which has been pierced. A clear break would open $67.75, the Dec 20 ‘24 low.
• Meanwhile, Henry Hub has surged to its highest level since Jan 24, boosted by freezing weather across large parts of the US and record feedgas flows to US LNG terminals.
• US Natgas Mar 25 is up by 7.5% at $4.01/mmbtu.
• Despite US dollar gains today, spot gold has risen by 1.3% to $2,935/oz, bringing the yellow metal to within sight of last week’s record high at $2,942.7.
• Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold target to $3,100 due to central bank buying and inflows into bullion-backed ETFs. If uncertainty over economic policy persists, gold could even hit $3,300, in their view.
• A bull cycle in gold remains in play, with sights on $2,962.2, a Fibonacci projection, followed by $3,000 psychological round number resistance.

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a bull trigger   
• RES 3: 156.75 High Jan 23 
• RES 2: 155.89 High Feb 3 
• RES 1: 154.24/80 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance / High Feb 12       
• PRICE: 151.71 @ 16:12 GMT Feb 18
• SUP 1: 150.93 Low Feb 07 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 149.69 Low Dec 9 
• SUP 3: 148.65 Low Dec 3 ‘24 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24     

USDJPY continues to trade below the Feb 12 high. Recent weakness  highlights that - for now - a key resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 154.24, remains intact. A clear break of the EMA is required to confirm a stronger bullish reversal. This would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 150.93, the Feb 7 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear cycle that started on Jan 10.

Overnight reverse repo facility takeup bounced sharply Tuesday, rising $19.0B (most since Jan 31) vs Friday to $77.8B. 

• That's the highest level since Feb 10 and for the moment brings takeup above the post-April 2021 lows set last week ($58.8B on Friday).
• Takeup is expected to remain steady from here/head higher toward end-month.