US NATGAS: TC Energy CEO Poirier still positive on investment in US natural gas

• Stocks have recovered from this morning's headline risk (risk off on tariff and middle-East tensions), extending highs in late Monday trade. Currently, the DJIA trades up 144.68 points (0.33%) at 44447.84, S&P E-Minis up 40.5 points (0.67%) at 6089.75, Nasdaq up 209 points (1.1%) at 19732.73.
• Headlines aside, Energy and Information Technology sectors continued to lead gainers in late tradde. Middle east tensions supported a rise in crude prices (WTI +1.45 at 72.45) in turn buoyed oil and gas stocks with APA Corp +5.49%, EQT Corp +4.34%, ONEOK +3.75% while Devon Energy gained 3.47%.
• Semiconductor and hardware makers supported the tech sector with Super Micro Computer +14.42 (won't annc earnings until Feb 28), Western Digital +5.83%, Dell +5.71% and Broadcom up 4.48%.
• On the flipside, Financial and Health Care sectors continued to underperform, banks weighing on the former: Wells Fargo -1.73%, JP Morgan -1.41%, PNC Financial -1.30%. Pharmaceuticals weighed on the Health Care sector: Incyte Corp -6.33%, Bio-Techne -3.61%, Thermo Fisher -3.32%.
• Earnings expected to be announced early Tuesday include: Leidos Holdings, Coca-Cola, DuPont de Nemours, Carlyle Group, Ecolab Inc, Fidelity National Information, WESCO International, Carrier Global Corp, Humana Inc, Marriott International and S&P Global.

• RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19
• RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg   
• RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7 
• RES 1: 1.2550 High Feb 5
• PRICE: 1.2372@ 19:39 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 1.2361/2249 Low Jan 6 / 3   
• SUP 2: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
• SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing    

GBPUSD continues to trade below the Feb 5 high. The pair has recently traded above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and pierced 1.2523, the Jan 27 high. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a move towards 1.2610, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support to watch has been defined at 1.2249, the Jan 3 low. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a reversal and strengthen a bearish threat.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, told CNBC in an interview today that President Trump "wants inflation under control...to do that, you have to increase supply and reduce aggregate demand. So you got to cut spending and you got to increase supply."

• Targeting an increase in supply is a major theme of the 2nd Trump administration, with senior officials all expressing the view that the US can enjoy stronger growth with lower inflaiton amid supply side gains.
• Hassett appears to go a little further than this in his specific mentioning of reducing "aggregate demand" in conjunction with higher supply in order to subdue inflation. He appears to have been referring mainly to a reduction in government spending - another key theme of the Trump administration's early policy drive - but the use of the term "aggregate demand" (mentioned at least twice today) for a seasoned economist makes one wonder whether the administration is becoming increasingly comfortable with the idea of a pullback in economic activity in the short run to get inflation down and get productivity and output up over the longer run.
• That's especially the case for the short-term impact of a reduction in government payroll and spending reductions (other Trump officials have highlighted that high government spending under the Biden administration was a key boost to growth).
• Hassett's supply-side comments pointed largely to the labor market: "The way you increase supply is you lower the marginal tax rate on labor, and you lower the marginal tax rate on new investments. And so for labor, if you look at the people who aren’t working who really want to be, it’s people who have really ridiculously high Social Security tax rates. If we’ve got somebody who can work more overtime, that’s increased labor supply, that helps them make a higher income, and it helps reduce inflation, because we have more supply."
• Overall participation has been in a longer-term downtrend. The prime-age labor force participation rate rose from 81.5% to 83.1% over the course of the first three years of the Trump administration, until it collapsed with the pandemic in early 2020 - but having recovered from there, now it's at the highest levels in over 20 years (83.5%). Overall participation rates remain below pre-pandemic levels (62.6%), and only t icked up slightly under the 1st Trump administration. That's largely due to a falli in post-pandemic participation by those aged 55+ (down 2pp).
• The argument is on stronger ground on getting more hours out of employees: average weekly hours dropped to 34.1 in January's employment report, joint-lowest since 2010.