AUDUSD TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 0.6331 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6301/09 50-day EMA / Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.6290 @ 07:54 GMT Feb 12
- SUP 1: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6000 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.5931 1.764 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD continues to trade at its recent highs. Despite the latest bounce, the trend structure remains bearish. The Feb 3 fresh cycle low confirmed a continuation of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of the bear leg would open 0.6045, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at 0.6301 (pierced), the 50-day EMA, and 0.6331, the Jan 24 high. A clear break of both levels would be bullish.
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STIR: Around 45bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Ahead Of Heavy Data Week
GBP STIRs also slightly more hawkish this morning as core global FI markets remain under pressure, although recent hawkish extremes remain intact.
- BoE-dated OIS shows 17bp of cuts for February, 20bp through March, 30bp through May and 46bp through year-end.
- SONIA futures flat to -6.0
- The market-implied cutting cycle continues to look shallow in our view, we expect cuts at both the February and May meetings.
- J.P.Morgan agree and have recommended receiving February BoE-dated OIS, alongside maintaining Aug ‘25/Dec ‘25 BoE-dated OIS flatteners.
- CPI data (Wednesday) headlines the domestic calendar this week. That reading will be much more consequential for markets than the monthly GDP (Thursday) and retail sales (Friday) data.
- We will provide the usual data preview and review around the CPI release.
- Comments from BoE dovish dissenter Taylor (Wednesday) also eyed.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Feb-25 | 4.529 | -17.2 |
Mar-25 | 4.501 | -19.9 |
May-25 | 4.401 | -29.9 |
Jun-25 | 4.382 | -31.8 |
Aug-25 | 4.324 | -37.6 |
Sep-25 | 4.302 | -39.8 |
Nov-25 | 4.254 | -44.6 |
Dec-25 | 4.240 | -46.0 |
STIR: 90bp OF ECB Cuts Priced Through '25, Lane & Rehn Stick To Script
Modest hawkish repricing in EUR STIRs this morning as core global FI markets remain under pressure.
- ECB-dated OIS covering this month’s meeting little changed, showing 23.5bp of cuts, with ~90bp of easing now showing through December, as the recent round of hawkish repricing extends further.
- The market remains comfortable with the idea of cuts at the January and March meetings.
- However, the market-implied ECB cutting path is now much flatter, with pricing of the potential for 50bp steps removed in recent weeks.
- April & June meetings are priced much closer to 50/50 when it comes to the odds of further cuts.
- Euribor futures 1.0-3.5 lower, off session lows as Bunds edge away from lows in recent trade.
- Much of the strip is threatening clean breaks below October/November lows.
- Little of note in comments from ECB’s Lane & Rehn, sticking to the Bank’s central view.
- Lane noted that the Bank will have to follow “the middle path of being neither too aggressive nor too cautious in our actions.”
- Rehn pointed to a clear direction of travel, with rates set to leave restrictive territory come summer.
- Looking ahead, final Eurozone CPI data is due on Friday, with a raft of ECB speak and the minutes of the December meeting due throughout the week.
ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
Jan-25 | 2.683 | -23.4 |
Mar-25 | 2.444 | -47.3 |
Apr-25 | 2.298 | -61.9 |
Jun-25 | 2.173 | -74.4 |
Jul-25 | 2.131 | -78.6 |
Sep-25 | 2.060 | -85.7 |
Oct-25 | 2.042 | -87.5 |
Dec-25 | 2.017 | -90.0 |
