INDONESIA: The Jakarta Composite Fall in Recent Context.

Yen is firmer, aided by the Q4 GDP beat, while AUD and NZD have ticked higher as well in early Monday dealings. The rest of the G10 aren't moving much (with SEK down modestly). The BBDXY index is little changed versus end Friday levels, last close to 1288.0. 

• USD/JPY got to lows of 151.91 post the GDP print, and holds close to this level in latest dealings, up around 0.25% firmer in yen terms for the session. The Q4 GDP print continued to suggest a resilient growth backdrop, albeit with slower consumer spending. This will be a watch for the authorities, although Dec monthly data pointed to firmer real spending and wage outcomes. It should keep the BOJ on a further normalization path.
• If we can sustain a break sub 152.00, the Feb 7 low at 150.93 may come into focus.
• There is no cash US Tsy trading today, due to a US holiday. Tsy futures are softer in early dealings. The trend for US-JP yield differentials has been lower following recent US data misses.
• NZD/USD is back above 0.5730, with Friday highs near 0.5740 close by. Key levels to watch include, resistance is 0.5763 (Dec 18 highs), while 0.5790 (100-Day EMA) could become a target. Earlier data showed the services PMI rebounding back above 50.0 in Jan.
• AUD/USD is slightly trailing NZD, last near 0.6355/60.  The AUD/NZD cross is back sub 1.1100. The RBA tomorrow and RBNZ on Wednesday are expected to ease.
• We have Japan data on Dec IP and the tertiary activity index later. Otherwise, the data/event risk calendar is largely empty for Asia Pac markets. 

RBNZ dated OIS pricing is slightly softer across meetings today, ahead of the RBNZ Policy Decision on Wednesday.

• The RBNZ decision is widely expected to cut rates 50bp again to 3.75%. Revised staff forecasts will also be published with the decision at 1200 AEDT/1400 NZDT and Governor Orr’s press conference taking place at 1300 AEDT/1500 NZDT.
• All 22 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are forecasting a 50bp rate cut and the RBNZ shadow board is recommending 50bp of easing.
• Notably, OIS pricing is 2–13bps firmer than pre-Q4 Labour Market data levels from February 4.
• Nevertheless, 49bps of easing is priced for Wednesday, with a cumulative 117bps by November 2025.

Figure 1: RBNZ Dated OIS Today vs. Pre-Q4 Labour Market Data (%)

Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

Large outflows in Taiwan on Friday, as TSMC dropped 2.75%. India continues to see outflows as we now close in on almost $11b of outflows for the year. There wasn't a single region who saw inflows the past week.

• South Korea: Recorded -$87m in outflows on Friday, bringing the 5-day total to -$154m. YTD flows remain negative at -$1.37b. The 5-day average is -$31m, better than the 20-day average of -$76m but worse than the 100-day average of -$120m.
• Taiwan: Posted -$754m in outflows on Friday, bringing the 5-day total to -$1.09b. YTD flows remain negative at -$3.13b. The 5-day average is -$219m, slightly worse than the 20-day average of -$197m and significantly worse than the 100-day average of -$55m.
• India: Recorded -$253m in outflows on Thursday, bringing the 5-day total to -$1.60b. YTD outflows remain heavy at -$10.86b. The 5-day average is -$320m, close to the 20-day average of -$316m and worse than the 100-day average of -$205m.
• Indonesia: Posted -$36m in outflows on Friday, bringing the 5-day total to -$184m. YTD flows remain negative at -$646m. The 5-day average is -$37m, worse than the 20-day average of -$20m and the 100-day average of -$29m.
• Thailand: Saw +$24m in inflows on Friday, bringing the 5-day total to -$2m. YTD flows remain negative at -$289m. The 5-day average is $0m, better than the 20-day average of -$5m and the 100-day average of -$18m.
• Malaysia: Registered -$25m in outflows on Friday, bringing the 5-day total to -$25m. YTD flows are negative at -$785m. The 5-day average is -$5m, better than the 20-day average of -$26m but slightly worse than the 100-day average of -$27m.
• Philippines: Recorded -$10m in outflows on Friday, bringing the 5-day total to -$43m. YTD flows remain negative at -$129m. The 5-day average is -$9m, worse than the 20-day average of -$2m and the 100-day average of -$3m.

Table 1: EM Asia Equity Flows